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Carbon Emissions Modeling of Coal and Natural Gas Use in Poland’s Net-Zero Energy Transition

ポーランドのネットゼロエネルギー移行における石炭と天然ガス使用の炭素排出モデリング (AI 翻訳)

Bożena Gajdzik, Radosław Wolniak, D. Bałaga, Wiesław Grebski

Resources📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-04-20#エネルギー転換Origin: EU
DOI: 10.3390/resources15040058
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15040058
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、2015年から2023年のポーランドにおける石炭と天然ガス消費に伴う温室効果ガス排出を分析する計量経済モデルを開発した。結果は、石炭消費が絶対排出量の主要因である一方、再生可能エネルギーの拡大が炭素強度の低下に寄与することを示す。短期的な変動は依然として化石燃料消費パターンに影響される。この枠組みは、化石燃料依存経済の脱炭素戦略策定に有用である。

English

This study develops econometric models to analyze GHG emissions from coal and natural gas consumption in Poland (2015-2023). Results show coal remains the dominant driver of absolute emissions, while renewable expansion significantly reduces carbon intensity. Short-term fluctuations are still influenced by fossil fuel patterns. The framework supports decarbonization strategies in fossil fuel-dependent economies.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本は依然として石炭・LNGに依存しており、本分析は同様の課題を抱える国の移行経路に関する示唆を提供する。SSBJやグリーントランスフォーメーション政策の文脈で、排出削減と経済成長の両立を検討する際の参考となる。

In the global GX context

This paper offers empirical evidence on the gradual transition in a coal-dependent economy, relevant for global discussions on just transition and policy sequencing. It complements TCFD/ISSB frameworks by providing quantitative methods to assess decarbonization progress.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Demonstrates an econometric approach to model emission drivers and transition dynamics in fossil fuel-dependent economies.

🏢実務担当者:Provides a framework for companies to evaluate the impact of fuel switching and renewable expansion on their carbon footprint.

🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence for designing sequential policies that first improve efficiency then reduce absolute emissions.

📄 Abstract（原文）

This study develops econometric models to examine greenhouse gas emissions associated with coal and natural gas consumption in Poland between 2015 and 2023. Poland has one of the most carbon-intensive energy systems in Europe. Three complementary log–log econometric models were estimated: a model explaining total CO2 emissions, a model assessing emission intensity (CO2 per unit of GDP), and a model capturing short-term variations in emission intensity. The results demonstrate that coal consumption remains the dominant determinant of absolute emissions, whereas the expansion of renewable energy significantly contributes to lowering the carbon intensity of economic growth. However, short-term fluctuations in emission intensity are still largely influenced by changes in fossil fuel consumption patterns. The findings highlight the gradual and sequential character of Poland’s energy transition, where gains in environmental efficiency precede a consistent reduction in total emissions. The proposed modeling framework offers an empirical basis for evaluating the effectiveness of climate and energy policies and can support the formulation of decarbonization strategies in economies heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

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