ナイジェリアのエネルギー移行を支援するガス利用投資決定：ニジェールデルタ地域のための技術経済的枠組み

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a novel multi-scenario framework with uncertainty-aware metrics for energy investment under transition risk.

🏢実務担当者:Offers structured decision criteria for gas utilisation projects, useful for oil & gas operators facing flaring penalties.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates how policy (PIA 2021, zero-flaring target) can be supported by investment frameworks that account for transition uncertainty.

Abstract Nigeria ranked seventh globally in gas flaring in 2024, contributing to 151 billion cubic metres (bcm) flared worldwide. The Niger Delta states of Rivers, Bayelsa, and Delta account for the majority of national flaring, with operators facing a penalty of USD 3.50 per thousand standard cubic feet under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and a government commitment to zero routine flaring by 2030. Gas utilisation projects require substantial capital investment, yet many Niger Delta oilfields have only 10 to 15 years of remaining economic production. Energy transition uncertainties over future gas demand, carbon pricing trajectories, and stranded asset risk are not captured by existing techno-economic frameworks, which apply deterministic single-scenario assumptions that cannot detect how investment rankings change under different transition conditions. This paper develops a modified techno-economic decision framework that goes beyond conventional net present value analysis. The framework applies multi-scenario analysis across four transition trajectories and evaluates four gas utilisation options: grid connection, gas-to-power, modular liquefied natural gas, and compressed natural gas, against a continued flaring baseline across 60 option-field-scenario combinations. Four uncertainty-aware metrics are introduced: Scenario Resilience Score, Payback Sensitivity Score, Flexibility Value, and Regret Index. Applied to three representative Niger Delta fields, the framework produces investment recommendations that differ from those of conventional analysis in material ways. At the onshore fields, gas-to-power returns positive net present value across all four scenarios, with payback periods of 1.4 to 3.6 years confirming robust capital recovery. At the offshore Ofon Field, conventional analysis ranks gas-to-power second with a base-case net present value of USD 44.1 million, but the modified framework reclassifies it as Defer (High risk) because its payback period extends to 20.5 years under delayed transition conditions, exceeding the 10-year remaining field life. Grid connection, which is unaffected by offshore market access constraints, is the only option at Ofon that avoids negative net present value across all four scenarios. Every utilisation option outperforms continued flaring in every scenario, with a minimum net present value advantage of USD 63.7 million. The framework provides operators and policymakers with structured, threshold-based decision criteria that support Nigeria's 2030 zero-flaring target under transition uncertainty.

• openalex https://rgu-repository.worktribe.com/3504531/1/INNOCENT%202026%20Gas%20utilisation%20investment%20%28SLIDES%20PDF%29first seen 2026-08-30 04:32:30