Implementation Risk under Transition Uncertainty in Clean-Hydrogen Investment: A Real-Options Framework with Time-Varying Empirical Identification
移行不確実性下のクリーン水素投資における実施リスク：時間変動型実証同定を伴うリアル・オプション・フレームワーク (AI 翻訳)
Saakstra, Sake
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、移行不確実性下でのクリーン水素投資の実施リスクを評価するリアル・オプション・フレームワークを提案。米国45Q、EUイノベーションファンド、英国Track-1、中国第14次五カ年計画の4つの政策を実証分析し、オフテイク契約がキャンセル確率を11～13ポイント低下させることを発見。2020年前後で炭素条件付きハザード強度に構造変化があることを示す。
English
This paper proposes a real-options framework with time-varying empirical identification to evaluate implementation risk in clean-hydrogen investment under transition uncertainty. It empirically analyzes four policies (US 45Q, EU Innovation Fund, UK Track-1, China 14th FYP) and finds that pre-FID offtake commitments reduce cancellation hazard by 11-13 percentage points. It documents a structural break in carbon-conditional hazard intensity around 2020 using a score-driven GAS state-space model.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は水素基本戦略を掲げるが、実際の投資実施リスクの定量評価は不十分。本論文の政策評価手法（DiD推定や感度分析）は、日本の水素政策（例：水素供給インフラ支援）の設計や、SSBJにおける気候関連リスク開示の実践に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a rigorous empirical framework for evaluating hydrogen investment risks under transition uncertainty, relevant for global policy design (e.g., ISSB disclosure, transition finance). The findings on the effectiveness of offtake commitments and the structural break around 2020 offer insights for corporate strategy and regulatory evaluation under TCFD/CSRD.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Methodological contribution: time-varying empirical identification in real-options setting; DiD with sensitivity bounds for policy evaluation.
🏢実務担当者:Insights on how offtake commitments and policy types (tax credits vs. grants) affect project cancellation risk; useful for hydrogen project developers and corporate strategists.
🏛政策担当者:Evidence on the relative effectiveness of carrot policies (45Q, Innovation Fund, etc.) and the importance of pre-FID commitments; informs hydrogen support scheme design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
A real-options framework with time-varying empirical identification for implementation risk in clean-hydrogen investment under transition uncertainty. The empirical analysis identifies pre-FID offtake commitments as a substantively under-appreciated mechanism (−11 to −13pp cancellation-hazard reduction, robust to Oster (2019) δ_null = 20.23), evaluates four carrot-policy types (US 45Q, EU Innovation Fund, UK Track-1, China 14th FYP) via modern DiD estimators (Sun-Abraham, Borusyak-Jaravel-Spiess) with Rambachan-Roth honest sensitivity bounds, and documents a structural break in the carbon-conditional hazard intensity around 2020 via a score-driven GAS state-space specification. The dissertation argues that implementation-risk dynamics under transition uncertainty are themselves a substantive economic phenomenon, not a measurement nuisance to be controlled away in pursuit of stable underlying parameters.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/20360049first seen 2026-05-24 04:11:49
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