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Institutional Determinants of Climate Mitigation Success: A Comparative Analysis of Emissions Pathways in Germany and Iran

気候変動緩和の成功における制度的決定要因：ドイツとイランの排出経路の比較分析 (AI 翻訳)

asadollahi a

Research Squareプレプリント2026-05-22#政策
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9635341/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9635341/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、ドイツ（2005～2023年にCO2排出量44%削減）とイラン（同期間に78%増加）の対照的な排出経路を比較し、制度のアーキテクチャが緩和効果に与える影響を検討する。拡張されたアドボカシー連合フレームワークと定量的プロセス追跡を用いて、会場フィルタリング効果、政策忠実度のギャップ、連合の経済的整合性の3つの中核的メカニズムを特定した。ドイツの成功はマルチレベルガバナンスと司法執行に起因する一方、イランは補助金改革のコストが気候目標未達のコストを上回る制度的惰性乗数に直面している。

English

This paper compares Germany's 44% CO2 reduction (2005-2023) with Iran's 78% increase to examine how institutional architecture shapes mitigation effectiveness. Using an enhanced Advocacy Coalition Framework and quantitative process tracing, it identifies three mechanisms: venue filtering, policy fidelity gaps, and coalition economic alignment. Germany's multi-level governance and enforcement drive success, while Iran faces an institutional inertia multiplier where reform costs exceed climate target failure costs.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

本論文は、日本のGX政策においても重要である。ドイツの連邦制・司法執行の成功要因は、日本の中央主導型体制との比較に資する。また、イランの事例は、制裁下での技術移転不足が排出削減を阻害する点を示唆し、日本のエネルギー安全保障政策との類似点を提供する。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to global climate governance by emphasizing institutional preconditions for effective mitigation, moving beyond target-setting. It highlights the role of cost internalization and transparent monitoring, aligning with ISSB and TCFD frameworks that stress accountability. The findings support arguments for capacity-building in developing countries within international climate finance discussions.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:The enhanced Advocacy Coalition Framework and quantitative process tracing offer methodological innovations for studying climate policy implementation.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers can use the identified mechanisms (venue filtering, policy fidelity, coalition alignment) as diagnostic tools for assessing national mitigation capacity.

📄 Abstract（原文）

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Global climate stabilization demands rapid emissions reductions across divergent political economies, yet outcomes differ sharply despite comparable technological options and commitments. This study contrasts Germany’s 44% CO₂ reduction (2005–2023) with Iran’s 78% ± 20% increase to examine how institutional architecture shapes mitigation effectiveness alongside external constraints. Drawing on an enhanced Advocacy Coalition Framework and quantitative process tracing, we identify three core mechanisms: venue filtering effects, policy fidelity gaps, and coalition economic alignment.Germany’s multi-level governance, federal accountability, judicial enforcement, and green industrial transformation correlate with substantial sectoral decarbonization, although carbon leakage through outsourcing may partly account for territorial reductions. In Iran, a high Institutional Inertia Multiplier where subsidy reform costs exceed the costs of missing climate targets systematically undermines implementation, further compounded by sanctions that severely limit technology transfer and investment.These findings explain why many developing-country NDCs exhibit large implementation deficits, especially in resource-dependent economies facing both institutional barriers and geopolitical pressures. Effective climate governance requires institutional preconditions that enable cost internalization, transparent monitoring, and sustained commitment. International support should therefore prioritize building implementation-oriented institutional capacity rather than focusing primarily on target-setting and technology transfer.</p>

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

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