Green Energy Transition and Sustainable Development Outcomes in Europe: Evidence of Threshold and Moderating Effects
欧州におけるグリーンエネルギー転換と持続可能な開発成果：閾値効果と調整効果の証拠 (AI 翻訳)
Malek Abaab, Khalid M. Al-Harbi, Faisal A. Otaibi, Kamel Helali
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は2005年から2023年の欧州20カ国を対象に、再生可能エネルギー消費が持続可能な開発に与える影響を非線形パネルモデルで分析。再生可能エネルギー比率が20.4％と28.9％の閾値を超えるとCO2削減効果が有意に強まることを発見し、系統整備や蓄電投資、炭素価格付けなど段階的な政策の重要性を示した。
English
This study applies a PSTAR model to 20 European countries (2005-2023) and finds nonlinear effects of renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions. Two thresholds at approximately 20.4% and 28.9% renewable share reveal that significant emission reductions only occur after reaching the higher threshold. Policy implications include grid modernization, storage investment, carbon pricing, and sector coupling.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも再生可能エネルギー比率目標達成に向け、本論文の示す閾値（20.4%、28.9%）は政策設計の参考となる。特に系統安定化や蓄電投資の定量的重要性を裏付けており、日本のエネルギー基本計画や第7次エネルギー基本計画の策定に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global understanding of nonlinear dynamics in renewable energy transitions, demonstrating that environmental benefits only materialize after certain adoption thresholds. It provides evidence-based guidance for policymakers worldwide on sequencing investments and policies across different transition stages.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a robust empirical framework (PSTAR) for studying nonlinear impacts of renewable energy adoption, useful for replication in other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of grid and storage investments before renewable penetration reaches critical thresholds, informing corporate energy transition planning.
🏛政策担当者:Offers concrete threshold targets (20.4%, 28.9%) for designing phased policies including grid upgrades, subsidies, and carbon pricing.
📄 Abstract（原文）
ABSTRACT This study applies a Panel Smooth Transition Autoregression (PSTAR) model to examine the impact of renewable energy consumption (REC) on sustainable development in 20 European countries from 2005 to 2023. The results reveal a nonlinear relationship with two regime thresholds for the logarithm of REC at 3.015 and 3.363, corresponding to REC shares of approximately 20.4% and 28.9%, respectively. In the low‐adoption regime, REC has a statistically significant but economically limited effect on CO 2 emissions, mainly due to transitional adjustment costs, including grid expansion, storage investment, and backup capacity requirements. After REC exceeds the second threshold, its impact becomes significantly negative, leading to considerable reductions in CO 2 emissions and stronger environmental sustainability outcomes. Robustness checks using system GMM confirm this nonlinear pattern and support a U‐shaped relationship between REC and emissions. Furthermore, interaction effects indicate that fossil fuel consumption, public expenditure, and urbanization reinforce REC's positive contribution to sustainable development by strengthening its capacity to reduce environmental degradation. These findings imply that policymakers should prioritize grid modernization and storage infrastructure during early transition stages, promote targeted subsidies and research and development in intermediate stages, and strengthen carbon pricing, sector coupling, fossil fuel phase‐outs, sustainable urban planning, and green public investment in mature renewable energy regimes. Overall, the study highlights that the environmental benefits of renewable energy are not immediate but accrue as countries reach adoption levels, underscoring the importance of coordinated energy, fiscal, and development policies to ensure long‐term economic resilience, energy security, and sustainable growth across Europe.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.71344first seen 2026-07-23 05:01:22
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