ナイジェリアにおける水素インフラと貿易のシナリオベース計画：政策・技術・持続可能性の不確実性への対応

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Emerging-economy hydrogen pathway and scenario-method reference, though light on quantitative modelling.

🏢実務担当者:Useful context for firms assessing hydrogen offtake or supply diversification from West Africa.

🏛政策担当者:Illustrates a phased blue-to-green hydrogen roadmap and the policy/PPP levers that gate it.

The global transition to a low-carbon economy has positioned hydrogen as a critical energy carrier, offering Nigeria—with its abundant natural gas reserves, vast solar potential, and established energy infrastructure—a strategic opportunity to lead Africa’s hydrogen economy. This study develops a scenario framework to address uncertainties and opportunities in Nigeria’s hydrogen infrastructure and trade, aligning with its Energy Transition Plan and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Through a mixed-methods approach, including stakeholder engagement and literature review, the paper evaluates three hydrogen production pathways: green (renewable-based), blue (natural gas with carbon capture), and grey (conventional gasbased). Each pathway presents distinct trade-offs in cost, emissions, and infrastructure requirements. The analysis identifies key drivers—technological advancements, policy support, and infrastructure investment—and constructs four plausible scenarios using an impact-uncertainty matrix: Hydrogen Leap (high policy/tech), Policy-Led Delay (high policy/low tech), Tech-Driven Push (low policy/high tech), and Business as Usual (low policy/tech). These scenarios assess Nigeria’s potential as a hydrogen exporter to Europe, Asia, and West Africa, considering regional demand, infrastructure readiness, and geopolitical dynamics. A SWOT analysis further highlights Nigeria’s strengths (e.g., gas reserves, solar resources) and challenges (e.g., funding gaps, policy ambiguity). Findings suggest that Nigeria’s optimal path involves a phased approach: leveraging blue hydrogen in the short term to capitalize on existing gas infrastructure, while scaling green hydrogen as renewable costs decline. Critical success factors include robust policy frameworks, public-private partnerships, and international collaboration. The study provides actionable recommendations for policymakers and investors, emphasizing the need for targeted incentives, workforce development, and infrastructure modernization. By adopting a strategic roadmap, Nigeria can harness hydrogen to diversify its economy, reduce emissions, and emerge as a key player in the global hydrogen market, ensuring a sustainable and resilient energy future.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.56201/ijemt.vol.11.no6.2025.pg40.64first seen 2026-11-06 04:39:27