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廃棄物から富へ:UAEの農業・食品加工バイオマス残渣をエネルギー生産・炭素クレジット収益・ネットゼロ貢献へ価値化する経済的根拠(3展開シナリオ)

From Waste to Wealth: The Economic Case for Valorising the United Arab Emirates’ Agricultural and Food-Processing Biomass Residues Energy Production, Carbon-Credit Revenue, and Net-Zero Contribution Across Three Deployment Scenarios (原題)

Mohamed Alnuaimi

Emirati Journal of Business Economics & Social Studies📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-31#エネルギー転換経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.54878/dw0b8r57
原典: https://doi.org/10.54878/dw0b8r57

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

UAEが年間800〜1200万トン排出する農業・食品系有機残渣を、廃棄物負債ではなく経済資産として価値化する経済分析。既存の廃棄物・CO2貯留インフラを活用し、エネルギー単独・炭素単独・ハイブリッドの3シナリオを比較。ハイブリッド経路は年2.2〜3.0TWhの電力と360〜430万トンの永続的炭素除去を生み、直接収益8.5〜11億ドル、広義で年20〜30億ドル規模と推計。炭素クレジット収益を新たな外貨獲得・国内価値(ICV)源と位置づけ、炭素価格閾値に応じた段階的導入を提言する。

English

This paper makes the economic case for valorising the UAE's 8–12 Mt/yr of agricultural and food-processing organic residues as an asset rather than a disposal liability. Comparing energy-only, carbon-only, and hybrid carbon-plus-energy scenarios, it estimates the hybrid pathway could deliver 2.2–3.0 TWh/yr of electricity and 3.6–4.3 MtCO2/yr of durable carbon removal, generating US$0.85–1.1 bn in direct annual revenue and a broader US$2–3 bn footprint. It recommends staged deployment gated on carbon-credit price thresholds and storage access.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本ではバイオマス発電のFIT依存や持続性基準、J-クレジット・炭素除去クレジットの制度設計が論点であり、廃棄物系バイオマスとCCSを組み合わせた収益スタッキングの考え方は、国内の炭素除去市場や企業のネットゼロ調達戦略を検討する読者に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

The paper speaks to the emerging durable carbon-removal (CDR) credit market and BECCS accounting under voluntary and compliance regimes, illustrating how stacking energy and removal revenues can align with national net-zero pledges—relevant as ISSB/CSRD disclosure and Article 6 carbon-market rules mature.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:バイオマス・BECCSの収益スタッキングと炭素除去ポテンシャル推計のケーススタディとして参照できる。

🏢実務担当者:廃棄物系バイオマスと炭素除去クレジットを組み合わせた事業収益モデル設計の参考になる。

🏛政策担当者:炭素価格閾値に連動した段階的導入やICV型炭素収益の政策設計の示唆を得られる。

📄 Abstract(原文)

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) generates an estimated 8–12 million tonnes of agriculture- and food-related organic residue each year, a stream presently treated overwhelmingly as a disposal liability rather than an economic asset. This article makes the economic case for valorising that residue and argues three propositions. First, the costliest element of any biomass value chain—collection and logistics—already exists in the UAE, because municipal waste utilities, a commercial waste-to-energy facility, agricultural extension services, source-segregation regulation, and the region’s pioneering permitted carbon-dioxide storage infrastructure are all operational. Second, three deployment scenarios—energy-only, carbon-only, and a hybrid carbon-plus-energy pathway—are evaluated for their annual contribution to national electricity supply, carbon-credit revenue, gross domestic product (GDP), and the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 commitment. The realistic energy potential is approximately 2.2–3.0 terawatt-hours per year, equivalent to roughly 1.5–2.0% of national electricity demand, while permanent carbon removal under the hybrid pathway reaches approximately 3.6–4.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. Third, the hybrid pathway is shown to stack two high-value revenue streams—electricity sales and durable carbon-removal credits—generating an estimated US$0.85–1.1 billion in direct annual revenue, with a broader economic footprint, including avoided disposal costs, gas-export substitution, and fertiliser import substitution, plausibly reaching US$2–3 billion per year. The carbon-credit component constitutes a genuinely new, foreign-exchange-earning In-Country Value revenue stream aligned with national diversification objectives. The article concludes that the hybrid pathway represents the optimal long-term strategy and recommends a staged deployment sequence gated on carbon-credit price thresholds and storage access. Keywords: biomass valorisation, bioenergy, biochar, carbon credits, BECCS, In-Country Value, Net Zero 2050, circular economy, United Arab Emirates

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