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国内炭素市場はEU国境税の影響を緩和できるか？インドのエネルギー集約産業における脱炭素コストの確率的フロンティア分析

Can Domestic Carbon Markets Buffer the Impact of EU Border Taxes? A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Decarbonization Costs in India’s Energy-Intensive Industries (原題)

Cheshta Grover, Ram Ranjan

The Energy Journal📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-18#炭素価格経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.1177/01956574261473489
原典: https://doi.org/10.1177/01956574261473489
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

インドのエネルギー集約・貿易依存産業を対象に、EU CBAMの影響と国内排出量取引制度（ETS）の緩和効果を分析。確率的フロンティア法で限界削減費用（MAC）を推定し、セメントで54.8ドル、コークス炉で453.9ドルと産業間で大きなばらつきを確認。CBAM脆弱性指数ではアルミが最も脆弱で、ETSシミュレーションでは低コスト部門が排出枠供給者となることを示し、適切な国内炭素市場が脱炭素コストを低減し競争力を強化すると結論。

English

This study analyzes the impact of the EU CBAM on India's energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries and evaluates whether a domestic ETS can mitigate risks. Using stochastic frontier analysis, it estimates marginal abatement costs ranging from USD 54.8/tCO2 in cement to USD 453.9/tCO2 in coke ovens. A composite vulnerability index identifies aluminium as most vulnerable. ETS simulations suggest that low-cost sectors become permit suppliers, indicating that a well-designed domestic carbon market can lower decarbonization costs and enhance competitiveness.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本ではCBAM対応が喫緊の課題であり、国内排出量取引の設計や産業保護策の参考になる。特に、鉄鋼・セメントなど日本でも重要な産業の費用分析は、GX推進政策や産業競争力強化に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This paper provides empirical evidence on how domestic carbon pricing can buffer the impact of CBAM, relevant for global discussions on carbon leakage and trade measures. The methodology for estimating marginal abatement costs and constructing vulnerability indices can inform policy design in other countries facing similar challenges.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous empirical framework for estimating MACs and assessing CBAM vulnerability, useful for further research on carbon pricing and trade.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into how domestic ETS can reduce compliance costs and improve competitiveness for energy-intensive industries facing CBAM.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of designing domestic carbon markets with targeted support for vulnerable sectors to mitigate CBAM impacts.

📄 Abstract（原文）

This study examines the vulnerability of India’s energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and evaluates whether a domestic emissions trading system (ETS) can mitigate these risks. Using data from the Annual Survey of Industries for 2015 to 2022, we estimate sector-level marginal abatement costs (MACs) using a stochastic frontier translog hyperbolic distance function. Results indicate a decline in technical efficiency over time and substantial heterogeneity in abatement costs across industries, with shadow prices ranging from USD 54.8/tCO 2 in cement to USD 453.9/tCO 2 in coke ovens (average: USD 238.3/tCO 2 ). MACs are negatively associated with carbon intensity, although formal tests provide limited evidence of a statistically significant non-linear relationship. Projected MACs remain relatively stable through 2030 under alternative decarbonization pathways. To assess trade-related risks, we construct a composite CBAM vulnerability index using carbon intensity, trade exposure, and economic dependence. Aluminium emerges as the most vulnerable sector, followed by iron and steel, while cement and chemicals exhibit comparatively limited exposure. ETS simulations indicate that low-cost sectors become permit suppliers as carbon prices increase. The findings suggest that a well-designed domestic carbon market, complemented by targeted support for vulnerable industries, can lower the overall cost of decarbonization, strengthen competitiveness, and enhance resilience to emerging carbon-related trade measures. JEL Classification: Q52, Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects; Q54, Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming; Q58, Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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