Investigating the effects of carbon tax and emissions trading on greenhouse gas emissions reduction: Evidence from a global analysis
炭素税と排出量取引が温室効果ガス排出削減に与える影響の調査：グローバル分析からのエビデンス (AI 翻訳)
Bao-Linh Tran, Yun-Ju Huang, Wei-Chun Tseng, Chi-Chung Chen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
74カ国のパネルデータ（2010-2022年）を用いて、炭素税（CT）と排出量取引（ETS）の排出削減効果を比較。カバレッジ調整後の炭素価格で見ると両者は同等の効果を持つが、名目価格ではCTが優位に見えるものの年次固定効果で減衰し、ETSの方が頑健。動的分析ではCTは遅延・持続的、ETSは即時的効果を示す。政策への示唆として、カバレッジ拡大と価格水準の重要性を強調。
English
Using panel data from 74 countries (2010-2022), this study compares the emission reduction effects of carbon tax (CT) and emissions trading (ETS). When using coverage-adjusted carbon prices, both are equally effective, but with nominal prices CT appears superior, though this attenuates with year fixed effects; ETS remains robust. Dynamic analysis shows CT has delayed but durable effects, while ETS has immediate responses. Policy implications emphasize coverage expansion and adequate price levels.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では2026年度の排出量取引本格稼働が予定されており、本研究成果は制度設計（カバレッジ拡大、価格水準）に直接的な示唆を与える。また、GX-ETSや炭素賦課金の効果検証にも応用可能で、政策当局や企業の脱炭素戦略立案に有用。
In the global GX context
This global empirical evidence on carbon pricing effectiveness is highly relevant to international policy debates, especially for jurisdictions implementing or expanding carbon pricing (e.g., EU ETS, China ETS, and emerging systems). The finding that ETS provides more robust identification and immediate responses, while CT yields durable effects, informs policy design choices globally. It also contributes to the literature on policy intensity measurement.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides robust comparative evidence on CT vs. ETS effectiveness, highlighting methodological issues with nominal price measures and the importance of coverage-adjusted metrics.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for corporate carbon pricing strategy and compliance planning, particularly in understanding how different policy designs affect emission reduction trajectories.
🏛政策担当者:Informs carbon pricing policy design, emphasizing coverage expansion and adequate price levels, and the complementary role of renewable energy deployment.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Carbon pricing mechanisms are central policy instruments for climate mitigation. This study assesses the comparative environmental effectiveness of carbon tax (CT) and emissions trading system (ETS), using a panel dataset of 74 countries over the period 2010–2022 under a fixed-effects estimation framework. We found that when effective policy intensity was measured using both price levels and sectoral scope, CT and ETS achieved statistically equivalent emission reductions: a US$10 per tCO 2 e increase in coverage-adjusted carbon price reduced per-capita GHG emissions by approximately 1.31%. This equivalence was obscured when nominal prices were used, as CT performed better than ETS in most specifications; however, this effectiveness attenuated significantly with the inclusion of year fixed effects, indicating that observed emission reductions in CT-adopting countries partly reflected global trends rather than the tax itself. ETS coefficients remained robust across specifications, reflecting stronger identification from idiosyncratic market-driven price variation. Dynamic analysis revealed that CT induced delayed but durable emission reductions, consistent with gradual structural adjustments, while ETS produced more immediate responses. The findings suggest that policymakers should prioritize coverage expansion and adequate price levels for effective policy intensity, adapt policy design to institutional capacity, and complement carbon pricing with renewable energy deployment.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305x261473473first seen 2026-08-06 06:06:45
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