デジタル化とエネルギー転換：WITCHモデルへのデジタルサービス部門の統合
Digitalisation and the Energy Transition: Integrating a Digital Services into the WITCH (原題)
Chanda, Debmallya, Peralta, Catarina, Verdolini, Elena, Drouet, Laurent
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は統合評価モデルWITCHにデジタルサービス部門を組み込み、デジタル化が電力需要と脱炭素経路に与える影響を分析する。デジタルサービスはデジタル資本と電力のCES結合で生産され、同時に生産性を高める投入財として二重の役割を果たす。結果、デジタル関連電力需要は2020年の約200TWhから今世紀半ばに450TWh超、2100年には約500TWhで安定化する。先進国が初期需要を主導し、インド・インドネシア・サブサハラが長期的に成長する。
English
This paper adds a dedicated digital-services sector to the WITCH integrated assessment model, capturing digitalisation's dual role of raising electricity demand while boosting energy productivity. Digital services are produced from digital capital and electricity via CES and also act as an efficiency-enhancing input. Global digital electricity demand rises from ~200 TWh in 2020 to over 450 TWh by mid-century, stabilising near 500 TWh by 2100, with advanced economies leading early and India, Indonesia and Sub-Saharan Africa growing long-term.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
データセンター電力需要の急増は日本のGX政策・電力計画・企業の再エネ調達戦略に直結する。AIインフラ拡大と脱炭素の両立を議論する基礎として、日本企業・政策当局にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
As data-centre electricity demand surges, this work informs global debates on AI infrastructure, grid planning and decarbonisation pathways under TCFD/transition-planning frameworks, offering a modelling basis for reconciling digital growth with climate targets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:デジタル化と電力需要・脱炭素を統合評価するモデリング手法として、IAM研究やシナリオ分析に活用できる。
🏢実務担当者:データセンター・AI関連の電力需要増と再エネ調達・効率化投資の長期見通しを経営計画に反映する材料になる。
🏛政策担当者:電力系統計画やデジタルインフラ政策において、AI需要増と脱炭素目標の整合を図る根拠を提供する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Digitalisation and artificial intelligence (AI) are rapidly increasing global electricity demand through the expansion of data centres, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure. At the same time, digital technologies can improve energy efficiency, system flexibility, and technological innovation. This paper develops a structured digitalisation extension for the WITCH integrated assessment model to analyse the interaction between digitalisation, electricity demand, and long-run decarbonisation pathways. The extension introduces a dedicated digital-services sector into the WITCH production structure. Digital services are produced through a CES combination of digital capital and electricity, while simultaneously acting as an efficiency-enhancing input within aggregate production. The framework therefore captures the dual role of digitalisation: increasing electricity demand while improving the productivity of energy use. Digital capital accumulation and electricity demand evolve endogenously within the model across all 17 WITCH regions. The model is calibrated using regional data-centre capacity estimates, global investment benchmarks, and electricity-demand data from the IEA Energy and AI report. Results show that global electricity demand associated with digital services increases from approximately 200 TWh in 2020 to more than 450 TWh by mid-century before stabilising near 500 TWh by 2100. The regional dynamics are highly heterogeneous. Advanced economies dominate early digital electricity demand, while emerging economies such as India, Indonesia, and Sub-Saharan Africa experience sustained long-run growth driven by digital infrastructure expansion and economic convergence. The analysis further shows that digitalisation systematically increases calibrated energy productivity within the model, reflecting the efficiency-enhancing role of digital services in production. The results highlight that AI and digital infrastructure may become important drivers of future electricity demand, infrastructure investment, and decarbonisation dynamics. The framework developed in this paper provides a new basis for integrated assessment modelling of the co-evolution of digital and green transitions under alternative climate-policy pathways.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/24161655first seen 2026-11-13 04:13:37
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