異なる再生可能エネルギー普及シナリオにおける日本の戸建住宅のライフサイクルコスト分析の補足データ
Supplementary Data for Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Detached Residential Houses in Japan under Different Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios (原題)
Habuer, .
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
将来のエネルギー価格の不確実性に対応するため、Oracle Crystal Ballを用いたモンテカルロ感度分析を実施。年間電気料金上昇率、ガス料金上昇率、固定価格買取制度（FIT）の変更を確率的前提とし、各シナリオの総ライフサイクルコスト（LCC）を予測変数として10,000回のシミュレーションを行い、シナリオ順位の頑健性を評価した。
English
To address uncertainty in future energy prices, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted using Oracle Crystal Ball. Annual electricity price escalation, gas price escalation, and feed-in tariff (FIT) changes were defined as probabilistic assumptions. The total LCC of each scenario was set as the forecast variable, and 10,000 simulation trials were performed to evaluate the robustness of the scenario ranking under uncertain future market conditions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の住宅部門の脱炭素化は、家庭部門のエネルギー消費削減と再エネ導入促進の観点から重要です。本分析は、将来のエネルギー価格やFITの不確実性を考慮したLCC評価を提供し、住宅投資や政策設計に示唆を与えます。
In the global GX context
This study provides a probabilistic LCC analysis for residential buildings under different renewable penetration scenarios, contributing to global discussions on cost-effective decarbonization pathways in the building sector. The Monte Carlo approach offers a robust framework for handling energy price uncertainty, relevant for international climate policy and investment decisions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a methodological example of Monte Carlo LCC analysis under energy price uncertainty, useful for energy-economic modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for residential builders and homeowners on cost-effective renewable energy adoption under uncertain future prices.
🏛政策担当者:Informs policy design for residential renewable energy incentives and FIT adjustments, considering cost robustness.
📄 Abstract（原文）
To address uncertainty in future energy prices, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted using Oracle Crystal Ball. Annual electricity price escalation, gas price escalation, and feed-in tariff (FIT) changes were defined as probabilistic assumptions. The total LCC of each scenario was set as the forecast variable, and 10,000 simulation trials were performed to evaluate the robustness of the scenario ranking under uncertain future market conditions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/22119829first seen 2026-08-27 04:32:21 · last seen 2026-09-04 04:36:06
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