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炭素回復を超えて：気候変動下の熱帯林における炭素の永続性

Beyond Carbon Recovery, Carbon Persistence in Tropical Forests Under a Changing Climate (原題)

Pedro Manuel Villa, Jamerson Souza da Costa, Ronaldo de Araújo Ibiapina, Júlia Ayres de Oliveira, Marjory Cristina de Magalhães-Fernandes, Lisandra Mendes Louzada-Camilo, Alejandro Guerrero Laverde, Angela Gioconda Jaimes Coronado, Walef Duarte Vieira, Marcelly de Souza Ventura, Beatriz Ribeiro Alhadas Borges, Julia Werneck Alves, July Lage Reis, Alex Josélio Pires Coelho, Alice Cristina Rodrigues, Fabrício Alvim Carvalho

Forests📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-21#気候科学Origin: Global
DOI: 10.3390/f17101249
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/f17101249

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

森林回復による炭素蓄積は気候変動下でその持続性が不確実であるという時間的ミスマッチを論じる概念論文。炭素「回復」と炭素「永続性」を区別し、遷移に伴う群集・機能の再編と気候ストレスへの脆弱性を、優占性と機能応答多様性の二経路から統合する視点を提示する。気候耐性のある回復には回復量だけでなく将来の気候・撹乱下で炭素を保持できる軌道かを評価すべきと主張する。

English

A conceptual perspective distinguishing carbon recovery (rebuilding forest carbon stocks) from carbon persistence (retaining that carbon as climate and communities change). The authors frame restoration as facing two moving targets—shifting climate/disturbance regimes and successional reorganization of the forest—and integrate these via dominance and functional response diversity pathways. They argue climate-resilient restoration must assess whether a forest's ecological trajectory can retain carbon under plausible future conditions, not just how much is recovered.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本企業の森林保全・炭素クレジット（J-クレジット等）や自然関連開示（TNFD）に関わる示唆はあるが、直接的な政策・開示連動は弱い。ネイチャーポジティブ経営の長期リスク評価の参考になりうる。

In the global GX context

Relevant to the growing nature-climate nexus in global disclosure (TNFD, ISSB nature-related work) and to the integrity of forest carbon credits: it cautions that permanence, not just sequestration volume, should anchor restoration-based claims and offset accounting.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:炭素永続性を遷移・機能形質の観点から捉える枠組みは、森林炭素モデリングや永久性評価研究の設計に有用。

🏢実務担当者:森林炭素クレジットや自然資本目標を掲げる企業は、回復量だけでなく永久性・気候耐性をデューデリジェンスに組み込むべき。

🏛政策担当者:森林クレジット制度やネイチャーポジティブ政策で、炭素の永久性と気候リスクを評価基準に反映する際の論拠になる。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Forest restoration is increasingly expected to contribute to climate-change mitigation by rebuilding biomass and carbon stocks, yet the persistence of these gains remains uncertain as environmental conditions continue to change. This challenge reflects a temporal mismatch: restoration decisions are made today, whereas restored forests must accumulate and retain carbon for decades. We argue that this mismatch involves two interacting dimensions. Climate and disturbance regimes may change substantially after establishment, while succession simultaneously reorganizes the community responsible for carbon accumulation and retention through recruitment, growth, mortality and species turnover. Restoration therefore confronts two moving targets, the environment in which carbon must persist and the forest that maintains it. We distinguish carbon recovery, the rebuilding of forest carbon stocks following degradation or land-use change, from carbon persistence, the capacity to retain substantial carbon as ecological communities and environmental conditions change through time. In this conceptual perspective, we develop a trajectory-based view of carbon persistence that examines how successional change reshapes the demographic and functional basis of carbon storage and how vulnerability to climatic stress is distributed among carbon-contributing species. We integrate these processes through two complementary pathways, dominance and functional response diversity, and consider how their relative importance may change through succession and environmental exposure. Climate-resilient restoration should therefore consider not only how much carbon is recovered, but whether the recovering forest’s ecological trajectory can retain that carbon under plausible future climatic and disturbance conditions.

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