気候科学と適応の橋渡し：国家気候シナリオ構築に関する展望
Bridging climate science and adaptation: A perspective on the construction of national climate scenarios (原題)
Karin van der Wiel, C. McSweeney, Janette Bessembinder, Steven Caluwaerts, Frank Kreienkamp, Geert Lenderink, Fei Luo, Regula Muelchi, Mark Payne, Claire Scannell, Theresa Schellander‐Gorgas, Frank Selten, Gustav Strandberg, Piet Termonia, Markus Todt, Kobe Vandelanotte, Hylke de Vries
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
10カ国の国家気候シナリオ／予測の構築経験を比較し、科学的信頼性と意思決定有用性を両立させる共通課題を整理した展望論文。ユーザー要望と科学者の提供可能な情報のギャップ、不確実性の伝達、極端事象や低確率・高影響事象の統合など5つの未解決課題を提示する。対流許容モデルやAI/ML、次世代CMIP/CORDEXの進展が機会とジレンマを生むと論じ、国際協調の強化を訴える。
English
A perspective synthesizing how ten countries build National Climate Scenarios, identifying shared challenges in delivering credible, decision-relevant climate information. It highlights persistent gaps between user needs and scientific capability, and poses five open questions on co-development, uncertainty communication, combining evidence lines, extreme and low-likelihood high-impact outcomes, and convergence versus national specificity. Advances in convection-permitting modelling, AI/ML, and new CMIP/CORDEX generations create both opportunities and dilemmas.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では気候変動適応法や気候変動適応センターの情報基盤、企業のTCFD・SSBJ適応開示の基礎データに関わる。物理シナリオの不確実性伝達は日本企業の気候リスク評価実務に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Directly relevant to global adaptation and disclosure frameworks (TCFD, ISSB, CSRD) that depend on authoritative national scenario data for physical risk assessment. It adds a cross-country governance perspective on how scenario products are built, maintained, and communicated at the science-policy interface.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:国家シナリオ構築における不確実性伝達と複数証拠統合の方法論的課題を整理する枠組みとして有用。
🏢実務担当者:物理リスク評価に用いる国家シナリオの限界と不確実性の扱いを理解する助けになる。
🏛政策担当者:適応計画と気候サービス整備における国際協調・標準化の論点を提示する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
In many countries, National Climate Scenarios or Projections have become foundational components of national climate services, providing authoritative, science-based, locally tailored information to support climate-sensitive planning and policy. Drawing on the experiences of ten countries, this paper synthesizes current practices and identifies shared challenges in developing scientifically credible and decision-relevant climate information. Despite substantial progress, gaps persist between what users request and what climate scientists can deliver, reflecting limits in observations, models, methods, capacity, and the inherent uncertainties of weather and future climate change. Developments in climate science, including advances in (global) convection-permitting modelling, artificial intelligence and machine learning-based methods, and new generations of CMIP/CORDEX, together with expanding societal expectations, create both opportunities and dilemmas for updating and maintaining scenario products at a national scale. We highlight five outstanding questions: how to co-develop useful and credible products with diverse users; how to represent and communicate uncertainty at the science–policy interface; how to combine multiple lines of evidence across models, scales, and methods; how to integrate information on extreme events and low-likelihood, high-impact climate outcomes; and where national approaches should converge or remain nation-specific. Addressing these questions requires progress in, and collaboration between, physical climate science, the emerging science of climate services, and the social sciences. By strengthening user engagement, refining approaches to uncertainty, and expanding international collaboration to reduce duplication and raise standards, future National Climate Scenario services can provide a stronger foundation for climate information, risk assessment, adaptation planning, and associated policy processes.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jemets.2026.100052first seen 2026-11-01 04:38:18 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:35:58
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