Policy Effects and Optimized Pathways for the Development of Wind and Solar Energy in Guangxi's Low-Carbon Energy Transition
広西チワン族自治区の低炭素エネルギー転換における風力・太陽光発電の政策効果と最適化経路 (AI 翻訳)
Yongliang Luo, Biao Yang, Xuwen Zheng, Worawat Sa-Ngiamvibool, Supannika Wattana, Buncha Wattana
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
LEAPモデルを用いて広西の電力部門のエネルギー構造と排出削減可能性を2022～2060年にシミュレーション。3つのシナリオ（BAS、PSS、DES）を設定し、風力・太陽光の急速な拡大と石炭火力の削減効果を定量化。DESでは2060年に風力・太陽光が発電量の82%を占め、GHG排出を80%削減。風力・太陽光・水力・蓄電の多エネルギー補完システムやスマートグリッドなどの戦略を提言。
English
Using the LEAP model, this paper simulates Guangxi's power sector evolution from 2022 to 2060 under three scenarios. Results show that under the Deep Emission Reduction Scenario, wind and solar reach 82% of generation by 2060, cutting GHG emissions by 80%. Key strategies include multi-energy complementarity, energy storage, smart grids, and local manufacturing.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の省レベルのエネルギー転換計画は、日本の地域別GX戦略（例：北海道・東北の洋上風力）に示唆を与える。広西の政策インセンティブと系統統合の知見は、日本の再生可能エネルギー導入拡大にも参考となる。
In the global GX context
This provincial-level energy transition study from China contributes to global understanding of how policy support and renewable deployment can achieve deep decarbonization. The scenario analysis and policy recommendations are relevant for regions worldwide pursuing similar transitions, especially those with high renewable penetration targets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The LEAP model application and scenario design provide a replicable methodology for regional energy transition studies.
🏢実務担当者:Policy strategies such as multi-energy complementarity and energy storage deployment are actionable for corporate sustainability and grid planning teams.
🏛政策担当者:The quantified emission reduction targets and policy support mechanisms offer evidence for designing national and regional energy transition policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
In the context of the global pursuit of carbon neutrality, the energy transition of Guangxi's power sector is crucial to regional sustainable development and to China's "dual-carbon" strategy. Relying on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model, this paper simulates the evolution of Guangxi's energy mix and emission-reduction potential from 2022 through 2060, constructing a Baseline Scenario (BAS), a Policy Support Scenario (PSS), and a Deep Emission Reduction Scenario (DES), focusing on rapid development pathways for wind and solar energy. The scenario simulation results show that although Guangxi's energy structure continues to improve under the BAS scenario, coal-fired power generation still reaches 92.3 TWh by 2060, constituting about 23% of total electricity generation of 397.3 TWh. Wind and solar energy generation grow to 128.3 TWh and 115.9 TWh, respectively, jointly accounting for about 62% of total generation. Under the PSS scenario, renewable energies expand rapidly, with wind and solar energy reaching 255.9 TWh and 194.3 TWh, respectively, by 2060, jointly constituting about 76% of total electricity generation of 591.6 TWh. Compared to the BAS, emissions of major pollutants (CO₂, CO, NOₓ, SO₂, and PM2.5) are reduced by about 21%, highlighting the importance of policy incentives in clean energy expansion. Under the DES scenario, Guangxi exhibits a high-penetration renewable energy development pattern. By 2060, solar energy further increases to 415.5 TWh, while wind energy reaches 219.7 TWh; together, they account for about 82% of total electricity generation of 773.2 TWh. Over the same period, coal-fired power generation sharply declined to 63.9 TWh, accounting for only 8.3% of the total. Compared to the BAS, Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and air pollutant emissions under the DES decrease by nearly 80%, fully demonstrating the central supporting role of renewable energy in realizing carbon-neutrality targets. On this basis, the study proposes key strategies for renewable energy development in Guangxi, including building a multi-energy complementary system integrating wind, solar, hydropower, and energy storage; accelerating the deployment of energy storage facilities and flexible regulating power sources; implementing smart grid upgrades to enhance renewable energy integration; and improving market-oriented trading mechanics of renewable electricity while strengthening the local manufacturing layout of wind and photovoltaic equipment.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.18462first seen 2026-06-08 04:52:36
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