OECD経済における脱炭素化：戦略的エネルギー転換のためのハイブリッドLOPCOW–IT2F-CoCoSoおよびCS-ARDLフレームワークの複製パッケージ

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a replicable hybrid MCDM–panel econometrics framework for assessing decarbonisation drivers and country performance.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights that renewable energy procurement and carbon pricing exposure are key strategic levers, while green bond issuance alone may not drive emissions reductions.

🏛政策担当者:Suggests that carbon pricing design should be complemented by renewable energy policies, and that green finance instruments need stronger additionality mechanisms.

This chapter develops and applies an integrated hybrid analytical framework that combines uncertainty-aware fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making with cross-sectionally augmented panel econometrics to evaluate decarbonisation performance and the effectiveness of carbon pricing and green finance instruments in OECD economies over 2007–2023. In the strategic ranking stage, the Logarithmic Percentage Change-driven Objective Weighting (LOPCOW) procedure is combined with the Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Combined Compromise Solution (IT2F-CoCoSo) method to produce a composite decarbonisation performance score across six criteria: CO 2 emissions per capita, primary energy intensity, the renewable energy share, the effective carbon price, green bond issuance relative to GDP, and the OECD Environmental Policy Stringency Index. In the econometric stage, a CS-ARDL panel model is estimated for the long-run elasticity of CO 2 emissions intensity with respect to these drivers, with cross-sectional dependence handled through Common Correlated Effects augmentation; because the short time dimension does not allow country-specific estimation, long-run coefficients are pooled across countries and cross-checked with the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) estimator. Three principal findings emerge. First, the country ranking is led by the Scandinavian–Alpine cluster and closed by Iceland, Australia and the United States, with Türkiye in a transitional twenty-fifth position. Second, the renewable energy share is the most robust policy-relevant driver of lower emissions intensity (−0.090, p < 0.001), whereas the effective carbon price has a small, negative and marginally significant long-run effect (−0.009, p = 0.067) that remains negative across five robustness specifications; green bond issuance has no detectable effect, consistent with the additionality debate in the green finance literature. Third, carbon-pricing exposure declines steeply down the ranking, and its joint reading with the ranking identifies three decarbonisation profiles—pricing-intensive leaders, established-pricing intermediate performers and structural laggards with weak or absent pricing—each implying a distinct optimal policy mix. The framework constitutes a diagnostic instrument for differentiated national decarbonisation strategies, with direct relevance to the Turkish emissions trading system established under the 2025 Climate Law.

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/23162893first seen 2026-10-13 04:11:36 · last seen 2026-10-14 04:34:06