炭素収入リサイクル下の鉄鋼脱炭素経路：内生的R&Dを組み込んだボトムアップ・トップダウン融合フレームワーク（韓国）
Steel Decarbonization Pathways under Carbon Revenue Recycling: A Hybrid Bottom-Up and Top-Down Framework with Endogenous R&D in Korea (原題)
Joo, Hyunkyung, koo, Yoonmo
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
韓国鉄鋼セクターを対象に、ボトムアップ技術モデルと動学的CGEを連結し、炭素税収の使途が脱炭素経路に与える影響を分析。税収の50%を鉄鋼R&Dへ再循環させると、8つの新規脱炭素ルートが全て稼働し、2050年産出に占める比率が19%から36%へ上昇、鉄鋼CO2はさらに8.7%削減される。再循環収入の約84%は税基盤拡大で回収され、GDP損失も最小化する。
English
Linking a bottom-up steel technology model with a recursive-dynamic CGE for Korea, the study compares carbon-tax revenue uses: retention, production-tax rebate, and 50% recycling into steel R&D. Recycling activates all eight pre-commercial routes, raising their 2050 output share from 19% to 36% and cutting steel CO2 by a further 8.7%, while minimizing GDP loss; about 84% of recycled revenue is recovered via the enlarged tax base.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でもGX経済移行債やカーボンプライシング導入の議論が進む中、炭素収入を特定産業のR&Dへ戦略的に再投資する設計は、日本の成長志向型カーボンプライシングや鉄鋼業の水素還元移行支援の制度設計に直接示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
As jurisdictions move toward paid ETS allocation and CBAM-linked carbon pricing, this paper offers quantitative evidence that earmarking auction revenue for sectoral R&D accelerates pre-commercial decarbonization technologies—directly relevant to EU ETS Innovation Fund design and transition-finance debates.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:炭素収入の使途と内生的技術学習を統合したハイブリッドモデリング手法は、脱炭素経路研究の新たな枠組みとして参照価値が高い。
🏢実務担当者:鉄鋼・素材企業は、炭素税収のR&D再投資が新技術の資本コスト低減と価格競争力に与える影響を投資計画に反映できる。
🏛政策担当者:ETSオークション収入を産業R&Dへ再循環させる設計が、GDP・厚生・税基盤の観点で有効であることを政策立案に活用できる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
The steel sector is the largest industrial source of CO2 in Korea, and the technologies that could decarbonize it- hydrogen direct reduction, electrolytic ironmaking, and CCUS, among them- remain pre-commercial. With paid allocation under the Korean ETS scheduled to reach 25% by 2030, how auction revenue is used is becoming a central design question. We examine whether recycling that revenue into sector-specific R&D alters the steel technology pathway, and at what macroeconomic and fiscal cost. We link a bottom-up steel technology model with a recursive-dynamic CGE model of the Korean economy. The bottom-up model covers eleven production routes, three incumbent and eight pre-commercial, calibrated to 2023 production shares using positive mathematical programming. Each pre-commercial route accumulates a knowledge stock from public and privately chosen R&D; once the stock exceeds a route-specific threshold, the route becomes available, and its capital cost declines with cumulative output. The CGE model distinguishes public and private R&D as separate sectors, and the two models exchange fourteen variables annually until convergence. Under a common carbon-tax path (30 to 150 USD/tCO2 by 2050), we compare three uses of the revenue: retention (TAX), an equal-size production-tax rebate (REB), and recycling 50% into steel R&D (RND). Because REB returns exactly the amount RND spends, the RND–REB comparison isolates the R&D channel. The carbon tax alone activates one of the eight new routes. Recycling activates all eight between 2026 and 2048, raises their share of 2050 output from 19% to 36%, and reduces 2050 steel CO2 by a further 8.7%. Both return options keep GDP above the TAX path; the rebate minimizes welfare loss, while recycling minimizes GDP loss and lowers steel prices after 2040. Roughly 84% of the recycled revenue is recovered through the larger tax base it induces.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/24157750first seen 2026-11-13 04:14:58
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