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Climate-Driven Energy Demand Shifts in the Kisalföld Region: Historical Correlations, Future Projections, and Infrastructure Loss Implications

キシュアルフェルド地域における気候変動によるエネルギー需要シフト：歴史的相関、将来予測、インフラ損失への影響 (AI 翻訳)

Zsombor Sztyehlik

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)プレプリント2026-05-16#エネルギー転換Origin: EU対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20230175
原典: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20230175

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

ハンガリーのキシュアルフェルド地域を対象に、気温上昇が電力需要パターンに与える影響を分析。XGBoostモデルで需要を予測し、温暖化シナリオ下で夏期ピークへの構造転換や送電損失の増加を予測。

English

This study analyzes the impact of rising temperatures on electricity demand in Hungary's Kisalföld region. Using an XGBoost model, it projects a structural shift from winter to summer peak demand and increased transmission losses under warming scenarios.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では気候変動による電力需要構造の変化は重要課題。本研究の手法は日本の地域別需要予測やインフラ計画に応用可能。

In the global GX context

This research provides empirical evidence on climate-driven energy demand shifts, relevant for global grid planning and climate adaptation strategies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:気候変動とエネルギー需要の関連を定量化する手法を提供。

🏢実務担当者:電力会社やインフラ計画担当者は、需要シフトと送電損失を考慮した計画に活用可能。

🏛政策担当者:気候適応策としてのエネルギーインフラ投資の根拠となる。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Rising temperatures driven by anthropogenic climate change are expected to substantially alter patterns of energy consumption across Central Europe. This study investigates the historical relationship between surface temperature and electricity demand in the Kisalföld region of Hungary — a lowland agricultural area characterised by high summer temperature variability — and projects how this relationship evolves under IPCC AR6 warming scenarios of 1.5 ◦C, 2 ◦C, and 3 ◦C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Using ERA5 reanalysis data spanning 1970–2024, upper-air sounding observations from WMO station 12843 (Budapest/Pestszentlőrinc), and Hungarian national grid load records from ENTSO-E (2015– 2024), we train an XGBoost demand model achieving R2 = 0.77 and RMSE = 285 MW on a held-out test set. ERA5 data reveal warming of +0.42 ◦C per decade since 1970, with cooling degree days tripling and heating degree days declining by 20%. Projections suggest that net climate-driven demand may initially fall as heating savings outpace cooling gains, but under the high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) cooling demand overtakes heating savings around 2065, representing a structural transition from a winter-peak to a summer-peak energy system. Additionally, temperature-driven increases in grid transmission losses add up to 100 MW of continuously wasted generation capacity by 2100 under SSP5-8.5 — a compounding infrastructure burden that is largely absent from existing demand projections. An interactive Progressive Web Application accompanying this paper makes all projections publicly accessible.

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