技術変化のドライバー

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:炭素価格・ETS・気候ショックがイノベーションに与える因果効果を識別した実証手法（合成対照法、特許・企業・気象データ結合）が参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:炭素価格やETSが自社の低炭素R&Dと協業先選定に与える影響、および猛暑・原材料制約が事業収益と特許戦略に及ぼすリスクを踏まえた計画立案に使える。

🏛政策担当者:炭素価格が低炭素イノベーションを促す一方、気候・供給ショックが企業特性により不均等に作用する点は、カーボンプライシング設計や産業適応政策の根拠となる。

Technological change is central to economic growth and to the transition toward a low-carbon economy. At the same time, firms’ incentives and ability to innovate are increasingly shaped by climate policy, climate change, and disruptions to global supply chains. This dissertation studies how these forces affect technological change, with a particular focus on innovation in Europe. Chapter 1 examines whether explicit carbon pricing stimulates clean innovation in road transport. We study the Swedish 1990/91 tax reform using the synthetic control method and find a substantial increase in clean transport patenting following the reform. By separating the components of the associated fuel-price increase, we provide suggestive evidence that the carbon-price component accounts for a large share of this effect, while comparable changes in the tax-exclusive fuel price do not have a significant effect. Chapter 2 studies how the European Union Emissions Trading System affects low-carbon innovation and firms’ R&D collaboration decisions. Using patent data linked to firm-level information, I find that regulated firms increased low-carbon patenting, with the largest effects emerging in later trading phases. The policy also increased the share of low-carbon inventions developed collaboratively, particularly with firms possessing larger stocks of relevant low-carbon knowledge, while collaboration with competing firms changed comparatively little. Chapter 3 turns to the direct effects of climate change. I combine European firm-level financial data, patent records, and local weather information to estimate the effects of extreme temperatures on economic performance and inventive activity. An additional day above 30 degrees Celsius reduces annual operating revenue by approximately 0.3 percent, with stronger effects among smaller and more labor-intensive firms. By contrast, I find little evidence of average effects on patent quantity or citation-weighted quality, although suggestive negative effects emerge among smaller inventor teams and in less heat-adapted Northern European regions. Chapter 4 examines how disruptions in access to critical raw materials affect innovation. We study the 2010 Chinese export restrictions on rare earth elements and construct a novel dataset linking European firms and public research institutions to rare-earth-related patents. More specialized innovators subsequently reduce rare-earth-related patenting relative to less exposed entities. These reductions are persistent and are not accompanied by robust increases in unrelated innovation, rare-earth-saving inventions, or collaboration. Taken together, the dissertation shows that technological change depends both on the incentives to innovate and on the conditions under which innovative activity takes place. Carbon pricing can redirect innovation and reshape collaboration networks, while climate and supply-side shocks affect innovators unevenly depending on their organizational characteristics, adaptation capacity, and technological specialization.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.5463/thesis.1895first seen 2026-09-19 05:12:10