System Dynamics Modeling of Geothermal Energy Networks: From Technical Characterization to Transition Dynamics

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🔬研究者:Provides a novel system dynamics model for geothermal networks, integrating technical and transition dynamics, useful for further research on energy system modeling.

🏢実務担当者:Offers design guidance and operational strategies for geothermal energy networks, aiding engineering and project planning.

🏛政策担当者:Provides an evaluation tool for assessing geothermal networks' emissions reduction potential and grid impacts, informing policy decisions.

Building heating and cooling account for 40 to 50 percent of North American energy consumption and generate approximately 2,284 million metric tons of annual CO2 equivalent emissions through fossil fuel combustion. Individual building retrofits face substantial barriers including high capital costs, limited expertise, grid constraints, and cold climate performance uncertainties. Geothermal energy networks address these limitations by pooling subsurface thermal resources through underground thermal energy storage and distributing energy via networked heat pumps at near ambient temperatures. However, complex interactions between subsurface processes, equipment dynamics, building loads, controls, and regional conditions over decades are poorly captured by traditional simulation tools, limiting confident design and planning. This thesis develops a system dynamics framework for geothermal energy networks through four articles. First, a critical review synthesizes knowledge on borehole, aquifer, and reservoir thermal storage integration with district energy, identifying modeling gaps. Second, a novel system dynamics model simulates geothermal energy network behavior at hourly timesteps across multi decade horizons, integrating thermal, hydraulic, economic, and maintenance subsystems to capture feedback mechanisms including equipment degradation, fouling, and performance recovery. Comparative analysis reveals aquifer systems consume more electricity than borehole systems despite higher heat pump efficiency due to pumping demands. Third, regional application across Washington, Illinois, and New York demonstrates that simple operational strategies stabilize costs without perfect sizing. Fourth, transition dynamics modeling in New York couples opinion driven adoption with deployment constraints. Results show adoption intent becomes predominant within three years but deployment remains constrained by infrastructure and equipment turnover. Over 45 years for a service territory with 177 MW peak heating and 130 MW peak cooling, the transition yields 2,097 GWh of additional electricity, 7,639 GWh of avoided natural gas, and 14 percent emissions reduction. This framework provides engineers design guidance, offers policymakers evaluation tools, and establishes geothermal energy networks as fundamental restructuring of thermal delivery achieving deep emissions reductions while managing costs and grid stability.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.11575/prism/51681first seen 2026-08-13 04:56:32