気候変動緩和としての抵抗：日本の反石炭運動における係争的排出
Resistance as climate change mitigation: Contested emissions from Japan's anti-coal movement (原題)
May Aye Thiri, Federico Demaria, Arnim Scheidel
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は「係争的排出（contested emissions）」という概念を導入し、社会運動や住民反対にさらされた炭素集約的プロジェクトの排出量を推計する枠組みを提示する。中止・遅延・稼働期間短縮・市場制約の4類型を区別し、日本の石炭関連紛争に適用した。反対運動は年間約49MtのCO2排出に相当する計画中止と関連し、継続的係争は約258Mtに及ぶ。合計は2021年度日本のGHG排出量の26.5%に相当する。
English
This paper introduces 'contested emissions'—projected GHG emissions from carbon-intensive projects opposed by communities or movements—and builds a framework distinguishing cancellations, delays, shortened lifespans, and market constraints. Applied to Japan's coal conflicts using EJAtlas, Global Energy Monitor, and local data, opposition is linked to cancellations of ~49 Mt annual CO2, plus 2.4 Mt delayed and 2.4 Mt with reduced lifespans, and ~258 Mt under continuing contestation. Together this equals 26.5% of Japan's 2021 GHG emissions, reframing social resistance as climate mitigation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の石炭火力政策と地域紛争を定量化した点は、脱炭素政策の実効性やトランジション・ファイナンスの議論に一次証拠を提供する。SSBJ開示の文脈では、移行リスクと社会的受容性（just transition）を企業がどう評価するかの示唆となる。
In the global GX context
The paper offers a replicable method to quantify how social contestation shapes emissions trajectories, relevant to global debates on transition risk, just transition, and the social dimension of climate disclosure (ISSB/CSRD). It adds non-OECD empirical evidence on grassroots-driven mitigation.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:社会運動を排出推計に組み込む新手法と、因果帰属の限界を検討する出発点となる。
🏢実務担当者:石炭・化石燃料関連事業の移行リスクと社会的受容性を、投資家・開示対応でどう扱うかの示唆。
🏛政策担当者:地域反対が事実上機能する脱炭素の経路を、政策設計や合意形成にどう位置づけるかの参考になる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Grassroots resistance increasingly shapes sustainability transformations, yet its implications for climate change mitigation remain difficult to identify and quantify. This paper introduces the concept of ‘contested emissions’ to make visible the climate significance of such struggles and develops an operational framework for estimating the emissions associated with carbon-intensive projects subject to social contestation. Contested emissions refer to the projected greenhouse gas emissions from projects opposed by local communities, activists, or social movements, including struggles that are not primarily framed around climate change. We distinguish four types of contested emissions: those associated with project cancellations, delays in operation, shortened operational lifespans, and constraints on fossil-fuel markets. We apply the framework to coal-related conflicts in Japan using data from the Environmental Justice Atlas, Global Energy Monitor, and local environmental organisations. We estimate that the opposition has been associated with the cancellation of projects representing approximately 49 million tonnes (Mt) of annual CO₂ emissions, while projects representing a further 2.4 Mt. have been delayed and 2.4 Mt. are associated with reduced operational lifespans. In addition, projects representing approximately 258 Mt. of annual CO2 emissions have been subject to continuing contestation associated with market constraints. Taken together, these resistances are associated with projects representing emissions equivalent to 26.5% of Japan's 2021 annual greenhouse gas emissions. The contested emissions framework therefore broadens conventional understandings of climate action by showing how struggles over pollution, health, livelihoods, and environmental justice can also shape carbon-intensive development and emissions trajectories.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2026.104976first seen 2026-10-17 04:41:29
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