量の希少性下における炭素価格と低炭素移行の資金調達：EU ETSからの証拠
Carbon Pricing and the Financing of the Low-Carbon Transition Under Volume Scarcity: Evidence from the EU ETS (原題)
Jammeh, Bakary
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
EU ETSの2031〜2040年オークション収入を推計し、炭素価格シナリオ別に加盟国の移行投資ニーズとのカバー率を分析。キャップ収縮による数量効果が2031年以降は価格効果を凌駕し、収入は必要投資額の1.4〜3.1%にとどまる。炭素価格の有効性と移行資金の十分性は構造的に別の政策課題だと示す。
English
Projects EU ETS auction revenues for 2031–2040 across low/mid/high carbon-price scenarios and compares them to EU energy-system investment needs. The tightening cap's volume effect dominates the price effect from 2031, and revenues cover only 1.4–3.1% of investment needs. Carbon-pricing effectiveness and transition-financing adequacy are structurally distinct objectives.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではGX経済移行債やカーボンプライシング（GX-ETS、炭素賦課）の設計議論が進行中。EU ETSの収入が移行投資を賄いきれない実証は、日本が炭素価格収入に過度に依存せず民間移行ファイナンスを組み合わせる必要性を示唆する。
In the global GX context
Directly informs the global debate on whether carbon markets can self-finance the transition under ISSB/TCFD-aligned transition planning and EU CBAM/ETS reform. It quantifies the gap between carbon-pricing revenue and transition-finance needs, relevant to transition-finance taxonomy and blended-finance design.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:EU ETS収入と投資ニーズのギャップを定量化する枠組みと2031〜2040年の投影データを再利用できる。
🏢実務担当者:炭素価格収入だけでは移行投資を賄えない前提で、移行ファイナンス調達と社内炭素価格設定を設計する示唆。
🏛政策担当者:炭素価格の有効性と移行資金の十分性を分離して政策設計すべき根拠を提供する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This dataset is the companion data file for the paper “Carbon Pricing and the Financing of the Low-Carbon Transition Under Volume Scarcity: Evidence from the EU ETS,” prepared under the ETS Functioning and Directions for Mechanism Improvement report. It contains all inputs, intermediate values, and results underlying the paper’s analysis of EU ETS auction revenues over 2031–2040. The file is a single CSV organised into seven labelled sections, followed by three appendix tables. The seven sections are: (1) inputs and parameters (cap, linear reduction factor, CBAM phase-out factors, GDP, and investment needs); (2) the Low, Mid and High carbon-price scenarios in EUR/tCO₂; (3) cap, free allocation and auction volumes for 2021–2040 in million EUA; (4) annual EU auction revenues by scenario; (5) country data for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands and Sweden (GDP shares and historical EEX auction shares); (6) a country-year projection matrix for 2031–2040; and (7) decade totals and coverage ratios. The three appendix tables report a drop-one robustness check on the six-source price consensus, a sensitivity corridor over alternative post-2030 cap paths, and an allocation of national investment needs by GDP share versus 2005 verified-emissions share. The central post-2030 projection continues the latest adopted linear reduction factor as a fixed annual reduction of about 90 million allowances. Under this rule the cap, and with it the auction base, closes to zero in 2040. A taper to a 10% residual cap is reported as an alternative in the sensitivity corridor. The paper finds that auction revenues cover only 1.4–3.1% of projected EU energy-system investment needs across the decade, with the volume effect of a tightening cap dominating the price effect from 2031 onwards. Coverage is modest in every Member State, ranging under the mid scenario from about 0.7% in France to about 6% in Poland. Carbon-pricing effectiveness and transition-financing adequacy therefore emerge as related but structurally distinct policy objectives.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/24201431first seen 2026-11-14 04:13:29
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