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Electricity Imports Versus Nuclear Reactivation in the Thermal Power Transition: The Role of Sustainable Finance

火力発電の転換における電力輸入対原子力再稼働：サステナブルファイナンスの役割 (AI 翻訳)

Yuanzhang Zhao, Shiu-Chieh Chiu, Jyh-Horng Lin, Ching-Hui Chang, Jeng-Yan Tsai

Energies📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-06-04#エネルギー転換
DOI: 10.3390/en19112701
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/en19112701

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、火力発電システムの低炭素化において、電力輸入と原子力再稼働のトレードオフをサステナブルファイナンスの枠組みで分析する。生命保険会社がバイオマス供給者、火力発電所、原子力発電所への長期融資を行うモデルを構築し、炭素規制と電力市場の決定が財務リスクに与える影響を評価。結果は、バイオマス統合と厳格な炭素規制が短期的収益性を低下させるが長期的脱炭素化を促進し、電力輸入がシステム柔軟性を高める一方、原子力のセキュリティリスクがデフォルトリスクを増大させることを示す。

English

This study examines the trade-offs between electricity imports and nuclear reactivation in thermal power transition within a sustainable finance framework. A contingent-claim model is used where a life insurer finances biomass, thermal, and nuclear plants under carbon pricing. Results show biomass integration and tighter carbon regulation reduce short-term profitability but support long-term decarbonization; electricity imports improve flexibility and reduce volatility; nuclear security disruptions increase default risk. The analysis highlights financial intermediation's role in shaping investment incentives and risk allocation.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本は原子力再稼働と電力輸入（LNG等）の間で政策選択を迫られており、本モデルは炭素価格やバイオマス活用の効果を定量化する点で示唆に富む。ただし、日本の電力市場構造や制度を直接反映したものではない。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to the global debate on energy transition financing by integrating contingent-claim valuation with electricity market decisions. It provides a framework to assess the risk-return trade-offs of nuclear reactivation versus cross-border electricity imports under carbon pricing, relevant for regions balancing decarbonization and energy security.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:The contingent-claim model linking energy investment and financial risk offers a novel methodological approach for energy-finance research.

🏢実務担当者:Energy companies and insurers can use the framework to evaluate investment risks in nuclear, renewables, and cross-border electricity under carbon regulation.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers can gain insights on how carbon pricing and financing mechanisms interact with energy import and nuclear decisions.

📄 Abstract（原文）

The transition of thermal power systems toward lower-carbon electricity raises a critical strategic question: whether to rely on cross-border electricity imports or reactivate domestic nuclear capacity under supply constraints. This study examines the trade-offs between these alternatives within a sustainable finance framework. A contingent-claim model is developed in which a life insurer provides long-term financing to a biomass-energy supplier, a thermal power plant, and a nuclear power plant operating under carbon-pricing regulation. The framework links electricity-market decisions with financial risk valuation, allowing the joint effects of biomass utilization, carbon regulation, electricity imports, and nuclear-security risks to be evaluated. The results show that biomass integration and tighter carbon regulation reduce short-term profitability in thermal generation but support long-run decarbonization. Cross-border electricity imports improve system flexibility and reduce operational volatility, strengthening the financial position of thermal producers. In contrast, nuclear-security disruptions significantly increase default risk for nuclear assets, reflecting their exposure to operational and regulatory uncertainty. By integrating energy-transition strategies with contingent-claim valuation, the analysis highlights the role of financial intermediation in shaping investment incentives and risk allocation in the electricity sector. The findings suggest that coordinated policies combining market integration, low-carbon transition strategies, and stable financing mechanisms can enhance system resilience.

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