システムダイナミクスモデリングを用いた水素モビリティエコシステムの加速

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:マルチ技術共存を扱うシステムダイナミクス応用として、社会技術的転換研究の方法論的拡張に関心がある研究者に有用。

🏢実務担当者:自動車・エネルギー・インフラ企業が、EVと水素の用途別ポートフォリオ投資や生態系連携を検討する際のシナリオ参照になる。

🏛政策担当者:技術中立かつ用途別の規制・インフラ共同開発・長期シグナルの重要性を示し、新興国の移行政策設計に示唆を与える。

This study aims to develop a technology acceleration model for fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) adoption that aligns with the diffusion of electric vehicle (EV) technology and to formulate integrated policy recommendations and development strategies to optimize the roles of EVs and FCEVs within Indonesia’s transportation energy transition framework. This study adopts a system dynamics approach, combining qualitative and quantitative methods. A causal loop diagram is developed using a qualitative approach, drawing on insights from focus group discussions and interviews with stakeholders, including government, universities, associations and technology providers, to capture feedback structures and dynamic hypotheses. The model is then formalized as a stock-flow diagram to represent the system’s quantitative structure, incorporating interactions among the policy and regulatory, market and economic, technological and infrastructural and environmental dimensions. The findings indicate that Indonesia’s transportation energy transition follows a gradual and managed technological coexistence pathway rather than an immediate substitution process. Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles progressively decline due to increasing regulatory, environmental, economic, market and technological pressures, while EVs become the key bridging technology in the short to medium term, supported by experience effects, cost reductions and charging infrastructure development. Meanwhile, FCEVs emerge as a complementary long-term low-carbon option, particularly for specific passenger transport segments, although their adoption depends on the simultaneous growth of hydrogen production and refueling infrastructure. The scenario analysis demonstrates that increasing the attractiveness of EVs and FCEVs through incentives, tax policies and infrastructure support, combined with reducing ICE competitiveness through higher fuel prices, subsidy reductions and carbon policies, can accelerate the transition process between 2020 and 2035. As a result, ICE vehicle dominance decreases to approximately 15%–20%, while EVs become the dominant technology with a share of around 60%–75%, and FCEVs gradually expand as supporting technologies. This transition is highly influenced by financial and policy mechanisms, including subsidies, tax reductions, import duty exemptions, preferential financing, hydrogen infrastructure investment, carbon pricing and fuel tax reforms that collectively enhance the competitiveness of low-emission transportation technologies and reduce fossil fuel dependency. Several limitations should be acknowledged. First, the model is designed for conceptual exploration and policy learning rather than precise forecasting. Parameter values are based on literature synthesis, expert judgment and stylized assumptions, which may not fully capture future technological breakthroughs or disruptive policy shifts. Second, the analysis operates at a national aggregate level, potentially obscuring regional heterogeneity in infrastructure availability, consumer behavior and industrial structure across Indonesia. Third, social dimensions such as equity impacts, behavioral heterogeneity and distributional effects are represented in a simplified manner. Finally, international dynamics – including hydrogen trade, technology spillovers and geopolitical influences – are not explicitly modeled, despite their potential relevance for long-term hydrogen development. From a policy and managerial perspective, the findings underscore the structural fragility of technology-exclusive transition strategies. Policymakers should avoid prematurely locking the transportation system into a single dominant pathway and instead adopt portfolio-based governance that aligns EV and hydrogen deployment with application-specific needs and infrastructure readiness. Key leverage points identified by the model include coordinated infrastructure co-development, credible long-term policy signaling and technology-neutral yet use-case-specific regulation. For instance, prioritizing hydrogen deployment in freight corridors, public transport fleets and long-haul logistics can maximize system efficiency while avoiding redundant investment in charging infrastructure. For industry actors, the results emphasize the importance of ecosystem coordination among vehicle manufacturers, energy suppliers and infrastructure providers, as isolated investments are unlikely to overcome systemic barriers. For developing countries such as Indonesia, where capital constraints and institutional capacity shape transition pathways, strategic sequencing emerges as a pragmatic approach. Leveraging EVs to deliver early emission reductions while simultaneously preparing hydrogen ecosystems for future deployment can enhance transition resilience and reduce the risk of stranded assets or policy reversals. This study contributes to the literature by introducing a dynamic multitechnology framework that integrates ICE, EV and FCEV within a unified system dynamics model. From a theoretical perspective, it advances the understanding of sociotechnical transitions by extending system dynamics applications to a multitechnology context, explicitly capturing feedback loops, path dependency and interactions among technology, policy, market and environmental dimensions. Unlike prior studies that focus on single-technology transitions, this research emphasizes the importance of coexistence and interaction among technologies and key system components, namely, technology and infrastructure, policy and regulation, economy and markets and environmental factors – and can be generalized, particularly in developing-country contexts. The findings provide policy-relevant insights for designing resilient, adaptive and diversified energy transition strategies in Indonesia.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-02-2026-0087first seen 2026-09-19 05:36:47 · last seen 2026-09-22 05:06:32