Decarbonising the Polish Energy Sector: A Cost–Benefit Analysis to 2050
ポーランドのエネルギー部門脱炭素化：2050年までの費用便益分析 (AI 翻訳)
Mariusz Kudełko
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、ポーランドのエネルギー部門の脱炭素化の費用と便益を2050年まで分析。結果、完全脱炭素化は約€165/tCO2の社会的炭素費用でのみ社会的に最適となり、約2280億ユーロの投資が必要と推定。限界削減費用曲線（MAC）を用いて経済的に最適な脱炭素化範囲を特定。
English
This paper conducts a cost-benefit analysis of decarbonising the Polish energy sector to 2050. It finds that full decarbonisation is socially optimal only at an SCC of approximately €165/tCO2, requiring an estimated €228 billion in investment. A MAC curve is constructed to identify the economically optimal scope of decarbonisation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
ポーランドは石炭依存度が高く、日本のエネルギー転換と類似点がある。本論文のSCC閾値や投資推計は、日本が脱炭素政策を設計する上で参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a rigorous cost-benefit framework for energy sector decarbonisation, relevant for countries with high coal dependency. It demonstrates the importance of SCC assumptions and MAC curves in setting optimal decarbonisation targets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Take away the SCC threshold and MAC curve methodology for energy transition analysis.
🏢実務担当者:Use the investment estimates and cost-benefit approach for corporate strategy on energy transition.
🏛政策担当者:Note the €165/tCO2 SCC threshold for full decarbonisation and the need for substantial investment in RES and nuclear.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper examines the costs and benefits of decarbonisation policy in the Polish energy generation sector. Accordingly, the analysis focuses on the costs of transforming the national energy mix up to 2050, as well as the environmental benefits associated with reducing emissions from electricity and district heating generation. The study addresses the question of which energy production structures are optimal at different levels of global warming costs, given the uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of human impact on the climate. The results indicate that relatively low SCC justify only a limited optimal reduction in CO2 emissions. Full decarbonisation of the Polish energy sector, corresponding to a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, becomes socially optimal only at an SCC of around €165/tCO2. Simulations conducted for different EUA price levels allow for the construction of a MAC curve, which can be used to identify the economically optimal scope of decarbonisation policy. Due to its heavy reliance on coal and the high-emission starting point of its energy transition, Poland faces particularly high investment requirements. Achieving climate neutrality in the energy sector by 2050 is estimated to require approximately €228 billion in investment, including substantial expenditures on RES, the construction of nuclear power plants, and the development of energy storage infrastructure.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/en19112561first seen 2026-06-15 04:55:39
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