中国の乗用車フリートの2050年までの移行が資源と気候に与える影響
Resource and climate implications of China’s passenger vehicle fleet transition to 2050 (原題)
F. Meng, Yi Xiong, H. Gauch, W. Ow, X. Sun, Y. Feng, S. Zhang, J.M. Cullen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の乗用車フリートの電動化と成長が、温室効果ガス排出、エネルギー需要、材料需要に与える影響を2050年まで予測するボトムアップモデルを開発。中国固有のデータでパラメータ化し、感度分析を実施。結果、車両在庫は2050年に3.6〜5.2億台に増加し、ライフサイクル排出は2035〜2040年にピークを迎えると予測。リバウンド効果が出力変動の50〜73%を占め、需要管理と効率向上の重要性を示す。
English
This study develops a bottom-up fleet stock model to project China's passenger vehicle stock, greenhouse gas emissions, energy, and material demand through 2050. Results show stock reaching 360-520 million by 2050, with life-cycle emissions peaking around 2035-2040. Rebound effects account for 50-73% of output variance, highlighting the need for demand management and efficiency improvements.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国のEV移行は日本の自動車産業や資源調達に影響を与える。日本のサプライチェーンは中国の需要変動に敏感であり、脱炭素戦略の策定に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides critical insights for global climate policy, showing that China's transport transition requires coordinated action on demand, efficiency, and material stewardship. It underscores the importance of considering rebound effects in decarbonization pathways.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a robust model for projecting fleet transitions and highlights the significance of rebound effects in decarbonization scenarios.
🏢実務担当者:Useful for automotive and battery supply chain planning, understanding future material demand and regulatory trends.
🏛政策担当者:Informs policy on vehicle electrification, demand management, and material recycling to achieve sustainable transport.
📄 Abstract（原文）
China’s rapid expansion and electrification of its passenger vehicle fleet will strongly influence global resource demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Yet existing projections rarely capture the complex, coupled effects of vehicle- and battery-related variables alongside fleet growth and decarbonization pathways. Here, we develop a bottom-up fleet stock model with exogenously specified powertrain adoption pathways to quantify China’s passenger vehicle stock and its greenhouse gas, energy, and material demand through 2050. The model is parametrized with China-specific data, evaluated against recent fleet statistics, and complemented by Monte Carlo, Sobol, and reference-scenario sensitivity analyses. We project that China’s passenger vehicle stock increases from 218 million in 2019 to 360–520 million by 2050, while life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, energy use, and material demand generally peak around 2035–2040 before stabilizing or declining. Depending on future behavioral and technological pathways, final energy demand and life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions range from approximately 53% below to 122–153% above the reference scenario. Sobol analysis shows that rebound effects account for 50–73% of output variance, followed by passenger travel demand (23–29%), whereas the timing of internal combustion engine phase-out contributes less than 0.5%. These findings demonstrate that a sustainable transport transition in China requires coordinated action on demand management, vehicle efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and material stewardship.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9014-1231>,first seen 2026-08-24 04:58:28
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