AI-Enhanced Evolutionary Game Theory for Intelligent Coordination and Adaptive Optimization in Low-Carbon Energy Systems: A Multi-Scale Review from Smart Grids to Carbon Markets

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🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive multi-scale framework and identifies open problems in heterogeneity modeling and digital twin coupling.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into cooperation thresholds and AI learning parameters that can inform industrial symbiosis and smart energy management strategies.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the role of institutional design and carbon price thresholds in shaping emitter behavior, useful for carbon market policy.

The modern energy transition has outpaced the control and optimization frameworks built to govern it. As power and energy systems fragment into webs of renewable generators, storage operators, flexible loads, and carbon-constrained firms, the deterministic, single-optimizer models that once sufficed buckle against nonlinearity, bounded rationality, and strategic conflict among parties who learn and revise as they go. Evolutionary game theory (EGT), which traces how strategies propagate through populations by imitation and selection rather than instantaneous optimization, offers a route through this difficulty—one this review develops across three scales of low-carbon coordination central to cleaner production: enterprise-level industrial symbiosis, system-level smart energy operation, and market-level carbon governance. We synthesize three decades of theory alongside the recent fusion of EGT with artificial intelligence, where deep reinforcement learning approximates high-dimensional payoffs, federated learning lets rival firms co-train models without surrendering proprietary data, and blockchain underwrites decentralized mechanism execution. The synthesis is accompanied by two illustrative numerical case studies, constructed for this review rather than drawn from the surveyed literature, whose quantitative outputs are reported below as demonstrations of modeled behavior rather than as empirical measurements. In the first of these, cooperative emergence in industrial symbiosis hinges on critical thresholds that travel from 0.15 to 0.75 as subsidies and transaction costs vary, with anchor-enterprise targeting accelerating cooperation 2.4-fold while cutting outcome variance 3-fold. In smart energy coordination, AI-enhanced learning buys 32 to 41% faster convergence, yet pays 25 to 39% larger oscillations—a speed–stability tension whose resolution lives in a narrow learning-rate band near 0.08 to 0.12, outside which either sluggishness or instability takes hold. Carbon-market behavior turns on price thresholds: emitters switch abruptly from buying quotas toward investing in abatement once the clearing price clears firm-specific triggers, a discrete state switch that smooth equilibrium analysis misses entirely. Across all three domains, fragmented data, path dependence, and regime-switching dynamics recur as the binding constraints on modeling and on governance alike. Four mechanisms prove invariant to scale—the decisive weight of initial conditions, the catalytic leverage of well-positioned anchor agents, the equilibrium-shaping force of institutional design, and the computational reach added by AI integration—which suggests that insight earned in one domain transfers to the others. We close by mapping open problems in heterogeneity modeling, verification under deep uncertainty, and the still-unrealized coupling of digital twins with privacy-preserving learning. EGT emerges not as retrospective description but as prospective guidance for the cooperative transitions on which credible decarbonization depends.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/pr14162568first seen 2026-08-13 05:05:34