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バイオ燃料の拡大と化石燃料依存の持続：ブラジルの証拠

Biofuel Expasion and the persistence of fossil fuel dependence: Evidence from Brazil (原題)

fumagali, junior, Gonçalves Montenegro, Rosa Livia, Arcanjo, Gabriel Arcanjo

Zenodoプレプリント2026-08-24#エネルギー転換
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22087297
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/22087297

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

ブラジルのエタノール、ガソリン、原油市場の統合と持続性をベイジアンVARとBEKK-MGARCHで分析。バイオ燃料拡大が化石燃料依存を必ずしも低減しないことを示唆。輸入パリティ価格政策（PPI）導入前後の価格レジームを比較。

English

This study examines the economic dimension of energy transition by analyzing the integration and persistence of ethanol, gasoline, and crude oil markets in Brazil using Bayesian VAR and BEKK-MGARCH models. It finds that biofuel expansion does not necessarily reduce fossil fuel dependence, with implications for energy policy.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本のGX文脈では、バイオ燃料と化石燃料の市場連関が示唆的。日本はバイオ燃料導入が限定的だが、エネルギー転換の経済的複雑性を理解する上で参考になる。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to global energy transition scholarship by providing empirical evidence on the persistence of fossil fuel dependence despite biofuel expansion, relevant for countries designing biofuel policies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides empirical methods (Bayesian VAR, BEKK-MGARCH) for analyzing energy market integration and persistence.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights that biofuel expansion alone may not achieve fossil fuel independence, informing energy policy design.

📄 Abstract（原文）

This repository contains the data and code used in the paper “Biofuel Expansion and the Persistence of Fossil Fuel Dependence: Evidence from Brazil”.   The study examines an economic dimension of the energy transition by assessing whether the expansion of biofuels is accompanied by greater autonomy from the fossil fuel system. The empirical analysis focuses on the relationship between ethanol, gasoline, and crude oil markets in Brazil, with particular attention to the dynamics and persistence of their integration and the implications of biofuel expansion for fossil fuel dependence.   The repository contains the monthly fuel price data used in the analysis, covering crude oil, gasoline, and ethanol from June 2001 to May 2025. It also includes the R scripts used for data preparation, Bayesian VAR estimation, and BEKK-MGARCH modeling, as well as the Python scripts used to process the estimation outputs and generate the figures presented in the paper.   The empirical analysis is conducted for the full sample and for two price regimes, before and after the introduction of the Import Parity Price Policy (PPI). The repository also includes processed datasets, estimation outputs, figures, and the materials required to reproduce the empirical results.   The README documents the repository structure, data sources, software requirements, main scripts, and the steps involved in the empirical analysis.

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