デジタル経済・グリーンイノベーションとカーボンニュートラル：MMQRとパネル平滑転移回帰を用いた先進国エビデンス

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🔬研究者:デジタル経済とグリーンイノベーションの非線形・分位効果をマクロパネルで示した実証手法の参照点。

🏢実務担当者:デジタル投資とグリーン特許戦略の補完性を踏まえ、脱炭素投資の優先順位づけに示唆。

🏛政策担当者:グリーン特許の閾値と金融政策の影響を考慮し、デジタル・イノベーション政策と気候目標の整合を図るべき。

Climate targets under the Paris Agreement and net-zero pledges have placed carbon neutrality at the centre of international economic policy. Yet empirical evidence on how the digital economy and green innovation jointly shape carbon neutrality outcomes across major economies is limited, fragmented, and rarely tested with distributional or nonlinear methods. This study examines the effects of the digital economy index (DE), green innovation patents (GI), renewable energy consumption (REN), foreign direct investment (FDI), human capital (HC), and monetary policy rates (MP) on carbon neutrality (CN) in eight major economies the United States, Germany, China, South Korea, Australia, Canada, France, and Italy over 2003 to 2023. Including China is essential: it is the world's largest emitter, the largest renewable energy investor, and the holder of the fastest-growing green patent stock, making it indispensable for any study of the global green transition. Cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, and second-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests confirm that the data require sophisticated estimators beyond standard fixed effects. The primary estimators are the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) and the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. MMQR reveals distributional asymmetry in variable effects across the carbon neutrality spectrum. PSTR identifies nonlinear threshold dynamics and regime switching in the digital economy–carbon neutrality relationship. Static panel benchmarks Fixed Effects with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, Feasible Generalised Least Squares, and Panel-Corrected Standard Errors and Bootstrap Panel Quantile Regression provide robustness validation. The digital economy significantly improves carbon neutrality at all quantiles, with effects strengthening at upper quantiles. Green innovation is a consistent and robust driver of carbon neutrality, particularly effective in the upper emission-reduction regime identified by PSTR. Renewable energy accelerates the carbon neutrality transition across all specifications. Human capital approaches near-unit elasticity at Q90. Monetary policy tightening reduces green investment and weakens carbon neutrality progress. PSTR results reveal that the digital economy's carbon neutrality benefit intensifies once economies cross a critical green innovation threshold of approximately 45.4 patents per million population, confirming strong complementarity between digital transformation and clean technology investment.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2026.105847first seen 2026-09-25 04:41:38