ASEANにおける非対称なエネルギー価格ショックの伝達と低炭素電力移行
Asymmetric energy price shock transmission and low carbon electricity transition in ASEAN (原題)
Waewwan La-ongsri, Nuttaphat Sukchitt, Pasin Marupanthorn
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ASEAN10カ国の2000〜2025年パネルを用い、国際燃料価格ショックが電力部門の低炭素化に非対称に伝わるかをNARDL・閾値・MIDASで検証。短期的には燃料費上昇が正の伝達を示すが、長期では上昇・下落への反応はほぼ対称で地域平均では対称性仮説を棄却できない。国別の予測精度には大きな異質性があり、単一モデルの優越はない。
English
Using an unbalanced 2000–2025 panel of ten ASEAN economies, the paper tests whether international fuel-price shocks transmit asymmetrically to the low-carbon share of electricity generation, combining NARDL, volatility thresholds, and MIDAS forecasts. Short-run transmission from fuel-cost increases is positive and error correction is significant, but long-run responses to increases and decreases are nearly symmetric at the regional average. Country heterogeneity is large and no single specification dominates, so the authors argue for cautious monitoring rather than causal claims that higher fossil-fuel prices accelerate decarbonization.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業にとってはASEAN拠点の電力調達コストと再エネ移行リスクを国別に評価する材料になる。SSBJ/Scope2算定の地域別電源構成の変動を読む際の補助線として有用。
In the global GX context
Adds emerging-market evidence to the global debate on whether carbon pricing and fuel-cost signals actually drive power-sector decarbonization, relevant to transition-finance and country-level transition-plan assessments under ISSB/TCFD.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:燃料価格ショックの非対称伝達をNARDL・閾値・MIDASで検証する実証設計と、地域平均での対称性棄却という慎重な結論が参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:ASEAN拠点の電力コストと電源構成の国別変動を、Scope 2・調達リスク評価にどう織り込むかの示唆。
🏛政策担当者:燃料価格シグナルだけでは電力脱炭素を加速しにくく、国別の系統構造とボラティリティ状態を踏まえた政策設計が必要という示唆。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract This paper examines whether international energy-price shocks transmit asymmetrically to electricity-sector carbon-transition performance in ASEAN. Using an unbalanced country-year panel for ten ASEAN economies over 2000--2025, the analysis measures transition performance by the low-carbon share of electricity generation and constructs real local-currency fuel-cost pressure as the main shock variable. The empirical design combines positive and negative shock decomposition, fixed-effect panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimation, volatility-threshold conditioning, and country-specific rolling forecast comparisons, including mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) specifications. The results indicate statistically significant error correction and positive short-run transmission from fuel-cost increases. In the long run, however, the estimated response to fuel-cost increases and the absolute response to fuel-cost decreases are nearly identical, and the Wald test does not reject symmetry at the regional average. Threshold estimates suggest that high-volatility years may alter the negative-shock channel, although the interaction effects are imprecisely estimated. Forecast comparisons reveal substantial heterogeneity across countries: asymmetric or mixed-frequency terms improve monitoring accuracy in several economies, but no single specification dominates the region. The findings support a cautious monitoring interpretation. Directional fuel-cost pressure, volatility states, and country-specific electricity-system structure are informative for ASEAN transition assessment, but the annual panel does not justify a causal claim that higher fossil-fuel prices directly accelerate decarbonization.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-05160-yfirst seen 2026-11-06 04:48:24
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