When to Electrify: Carbon-Gas Coupling and the Joint Electricity Procurement Decision for EU ETS Manufacturers
電化のタイミング：EU ETS製造業者の炭素-ガス連動と共同電力調達決定 (AI 翻訳)
Emre Usenmez, Carlos Arcila-Barrera
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
EU ETS下のガス集約型製造業者は、EUA価格上昇が直接コストとガス調達コストの両方を押し上げる複合的な炭素コスト負担に直面する。本論文は、電力調達方法に依存する電化投資の閾値を、Diebold-Yilmaz連結性分析と費用構造モデルで導出。ガス-炭素連動が強まるほど、系統電力調達では閾値が高く、クリーンPPAでは低くなることを示し、電化と電力調達の決定が非分離であることを明らかにした。
English
This paper analyzes when EU ETS manufacturers should electrify to escape compounding carbon costs, showing the decision depends on electricity sourcing. Using Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness on EUA and cost-driver data, it finds gas has overtaken coal as the dominant carbon price driver, with coupling rising to 0.75 in late 2024. A cost-structure model yields closed-form investment thresholds: grid sourcing retains EUA exposure and raises the threshold, while clean PPAs eliminate the gas channel and lower it. The electrification and procurement decisions are non-separable.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では、GX-ETSやカーボンプライシング導入が議論される中、電化投資の判断に炭素価格と電力調達の連動を考慮する枠組みは、製造業の脱炭素戦略に示唆を与える。特に、再エネ調達と電化の同時決定の重要性を示す点で、日本の企業のGX投資計画に参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global carbon pricing and transition finance scholarship by modeling the interaction between EUA prices and electricity procurement. It provides a framework for manufacturers under emissions trading systems to evaluate electrification investments, highlighting the role of PPAs in mitigating carbon cost pass-through. The empirical finding that gas has become the dominant carbon price driver has implications for energy transition strategies in carbon-intensive industries.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel framework linking carbon-gas coupling to electrification thresholds, with empirical evidence from EUA markets.
🏢実務担当者:Offers guidance on how to time electrification investments and choose electricity procurement (grid vs. PPA) to minimize carbon cost exposure.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of considering electricity market design and carbon price pass-through when designing emissions trading systems.
📄 Abstract（原文）
A gas-intensive manufacturer under the EU Emissions Trading System faces a compounding carbon cost burden since rising EUA prices increase both direct compliance costs through the firm's emissions intensity and gas procurement costs through the fuel-switching mechanism in power generation. This paper asks when such a manufacturer should electrify to escape that burden and shows that the answer depends on how the firm sources its electricity. We apply the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness framework to daily return and volatility data for EUAs and eight manufacturing cost drivers over January 2013 to December 2025. EUA price dynamics are idiosyncratic, with carbon-specific factors accounting for the majority of return forecast error variance. Among the cost drivers that do transmit to EUAs, the natural gas channel has overtaken coal as the dominant route, with the pairwise carbon-gas connectedness index rising from roughly 0.05-0.15 in Phase III to a sample high of approximately 0.75 in late 2024. A formal cost-structure model translates these findings into closed-form electrification investment thresholds as a function of the coupling parameter. Because the merit-order mechanism passes carbon costs into wholesale electricity prices, grid sourcing under gas-marginal pricing retains a residual EUA exposure and yields a strictly higher decision threshold than a clean power purchase agreement which eliminates the gas channel. The electrification and electricity procurement decisions are therefore non-separable, with the investment threshold governed by the gas-EUA coupling. A real-options extension shows that the upward trend in this coupling erodes the option value of waiting while EUA price volatility sustains it.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openaire https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6991048first seen 2026-08-04 04:38:59
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