Carbon Pricing and Inflation Expectations
炭素価格とインフレ期待 (AI 翻訳)
Michael D. Bauer, Diego R. Känzig, Glenn D. Rudebusch
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
欧州炭素市場の規制ニュースを用いた高頻度イベントスタディにより、炭素価格のサプライズがエネルギー先物価格だけでなく、インフレスワップレートやブレークイーブンインフレ率を有意に上昇させることを示した。効果は短期から長期（最長10年）まで持続し、市場ベースのインフレ期待に対する気候政策の持続的影響が示唆される。しかし、名目金利は反応せず、ECBが炭素価格上昇によるインフレに積極的に対応しないと投資家が予想していることを示す。
English
Using high-frequency event studies based on EU carbon market regulatory news, this paper shows carbon price surprises significantly raise energy futures, inflation swap rates, and breakeven inflation rates, with effects persisting up to ten years. Despite sustained effects on inflation compensation, nominal interest rates do not respond, suggesting investors do not expect ECB to lean against carbon-driven inflation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではカーボンプライシング導入が議論されており、インフレ期待への影響は日銀の金融政策運営や企業の価格設定に示唆を与える。炭素価格のマクロ経済効果を踏まえた政策設計が求められる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides rigorous evidence on how carbon pricing affects inflation expectations, relevant for central banks globally as they integrate climate risks into monetary policy. It highlights the need for coordination between climate and monetary policies, informing debates on carbon pricing design and central bank mandates.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides causal evidence on carbon pricing's impact on inflation expectations, useful for climate-finance and monetary policy research.
🏢実務担当者:Helps corporate finance teams anticipate inflation dynamics under carbon pricing, informing pricing and hedging strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Informs central banks and governments on the inflationary effects of carbon pricing, supporting policy coordination.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Putting a price on carbon emissions helps mitigate climate change but may also raise overall price inflation. Using high-frequency event studies based on regulatory news in the European carbon market, we show that carbon price surprises generate significant increases not only in energy futures prices, but also in inflation swap rates and breakeven inflation rates. These measures of inflation compensation respond positively at both short and long horizons, with significant effects up to ten years out. Such persistent effects of climate policy on market-based inflation expectations are relevant for central banks. However, despite the sustained effects on inflation compensation, forward-looking nominal interest rates show no meaningful response to the carbon policy shocks, suggesting that investors do not anticipate that the European Central Bank will lean against the inflationary effects of higher carbon prices.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utag023first seen 2026-08-06 05:02:02
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