Carbon price–new energy Tango: Causality swings in China

炭素価格と新エネルギーのタンゴ：中国における因果関係の変動 (AI 翻訳)

Kaihua Wang, Yu Han, Bao-chang Xu, Zheng-Zheng Li

Energy & Environment📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-01-20#炭素価格Origin: CN

原典: https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305x251410115

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国の炭素排出権価格(CEP)と新エネルギー産業(NEI)の動的因果関係をローリングウィンドウ推定で分析。CEPは外部ショック時にNEIに正の効果を与える一方、低CEPが新エネ開発資金を生む負の効果も確認。NEIはコスト上昇でCEPを押し上げ、回復時には化石燃料需要減で抑制。中国の「ダブルカーボン」目標とエネルギー移行に示唆を提供。

English

This study employs rolling-window estimation to analyze dynamic causalities between China's carbon emission price (CEP) and new energy industry (NEI). Results show CEP positively affects NEI during external shocks (e.g., COVID-19) but also negatively when low CEP releases funds for new energy. Conversely, NEI affects CEP through cost and demand channels. Findings inform China's dual carbon goals and energy transition strategies.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

本論文は中国の炭素市場と新エネ産業の相互作用を実証。日本のGX文脈では、日本のカーボンプライシング（有償オークション等）や再生可能エネルギー政策との比較に活用できる。日本企業の脱炭素戦略立案にも示唆。

In the global GX context

This paper provides empirical evidence on the dynamic interaction between carbon pricing and new energy industries in China. Globally, it contributes to understanding how carbon markets influence energy transitions, particularly applicable to emerging economies. It offers insights for policy design on carbon pricing mechanisms and renewable energy support.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:中国の炭素市場と新エネ産業の因果関係を動的に分析した手法と結果は、他の市場の研究にも応用可能。

🏢実務担当者:中国での事業展開を考える企業は、炭素価格変動が新エネ投資に与える影響を理解するための参考となる。

🏛政策担当者:中国政府は本結果を基に炭素市場の効率性向上と新エネ振興策の調整に活用できる。

📄 Abstract（原文）

In this study, a rolling-window estimation test is used to examine the dynamic causalities between China's carbon emission price (CEP) and the new energy industry (NEI). According to the results, the CEP affects the NEI in both positive and negative ways over various subperiods. The positive effect of the CEP on the NEI stems from economic slowdowns during external shocks (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic), whereas funds released from a lower CEP have a negative effect, enabling enterprises to develop new energy. In contrast, the NEI negatively affects the CEP through two channels. A higher cost triggers a decline in the NEI, driving up the CEP, whereas recovery of the NEI suppresses the CEP by reducing fossil fuel demand and emissions. The findings reveal dynamic causalities, enriching the theoretical framework of carbon trading market–new energy industry interactions and offering valuable insights into China's “dual carbon” goals and energy transition strategies. Thus, the following recommendations are proposed for three stakeholders: governments should improve carbon market efficiency, enterprises should transition to low-carbon operations, and research institutes should develop new technologies.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305x251410115first seen 2026-05-15 17:09:48

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