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The Nexus Between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Technology Innovation, and CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions in Vietnam

ベトナムにおける経済成長、エネルギー消費、技術革新、CO2排出の関係 (AI 翻訳)

Ha Thi Thu Nguyen

Economic and business review📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-06-01#エネルギー転換
DOI: 10.15458/2335-4216.1369
原典: https://doi.org/10.15458/2335-4216.1369

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

ベトナムを対象に、経済成長、FDI、技術革新、再生可能エネルギー消費、森林面積がCO2排出に与える影響をSTIRPATモデルとARDL手法で分析。長期では経済成長が排出を増加させる一方、FDI、再生可能エネルギー、技術革新、森林拡大は排出削減に寄与。短期的には成長・FDI・革新は増加要因だが、再生可能エネルギーと森林は一貫して抑制。政策提言としてグリーンFDI誘致、再生可能エネルギー促進、森林保護を提案。

English

This study examines the impacts of economic growth, FDI, technological innovation, renewable energy, and forest area on CO2 emissions in Vietnam using STIRPAT and ARDL models (1990-2023). Results show economic growth drives long-run emissions, while FDI, renewables, innovation, and forests reduce them. In the short run, renewables and forests consistently mitigate. Granger causality highlights FDI, forest area, and innovation as policy levers for low-carbon transition.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

ベトナムは東南アジアの主要製造拠点であり、日本のサプライチェーン上でも重要。本論文の知見は、日本企業がベトナムでの投資・調達戦略を策定する際、排出削減効果の高い分野（再生可能エネルギー、技術協力）を特定するのに有用。また、ベトナムのグリーン政策の有効性評価として参考になる。

In the global GX context

This paper provides empirical evidence on the drivers of CO2 emissions in Vietnam, a key manufacturing hub in global supply chains. The findings are relevant for global companies sourcing from Vietnam to understand how renewable energy and technology innovation can reduce emissions. The policy recommendations on green FDI and forest protection offer insights for other emerging economies pursuing low-carbon growth.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on the STIRPAT model for Vietnam, useful for researchers studying energy-environment nexus in developing economies.

🏢実務担当者:Manufacturing firms with operations in Vietnam can use findings to prioritize renewable energy sourcing and innovation partnerships as emissions reduction levers.

🏛政策担当者:Vietnamese policymakers can use the Granger causality results to design targeted policies attracting green FDI and promoting renewable energy and forest conservation.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Vietnam's rapid economic growth has intensified environmental pressures, heightening concerns about the country's ability to decouple growth from rising CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Although green policies and initiatives have been introduced, questions remain regarding their effectiveness and the extent to which technological innovation and renewable energy can mitigate environmental degradation. This study applies the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) framework and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the short- and long-run impacts of economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), technological innovation, renewable energy consumption, and forest area on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in Vietnam, using annual data for 1990–2023 and provisional observations for 2024. The ARDL bounds test confirms a robust long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. Empirical results indicate that economic growth is a key driver of long-run emissions, whereas FDI, renewable energy, technological innovation, and forest expansion play significant roles in reducing emissions over time. Short-run error correction estimates reveal that economic growth, FDI, and innovation initially contribute to rising emissions, but renewable energy and forest area exert consistent mitigating effects. Granger causality analysis shows predictive precedence from FDI, forest area, and technological innovation to emissions, emphasizing their potential as policy levers. Policy recommendations emphasize attracting green FDI, incentivizing renewable energy, and strengthening forest protection to facilitate Vietnam's transition toward low-carbon and sustainable growth.

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