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炭素価格シナリオ下におけるトルコのセメント輸出の産業持続可能性とEU CBAM曝露の定量化（2030年まで）

Quantifying Industrial Sustainability and EU CBAM Exposure for Turkey’s Cement Exports Under Carbon Pricing Scenarios Through 2030 (原題)

Hazal Küçükaydın, Can B. Aktaş

Sustainability📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-24#炭素価格Origin: Global経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: cement
DOI: 10.3390/su18178681
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/su18178681
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、EUのCBAMがトルコのセメント輸出に与える影響を2030年まで定量化。BAUではCBAM追加費用が輸出収入の154%に達するが、国内ETS導入や排出原単位削減で大幅に軽減可能と示す。国内炭素価格と低炭素技術への資金配分の重要性を強調。

English

This study quantifies the impact of EU CBAM on Turkey's cement exports by 2030. Under business-as-usual, CBAM surcharges could reach 154% of export revenue, but domestic ETS and emissions intensity reductions can significantly lower costs. Highlights the need for domestic carbon pricing and investment in low-carbon technologies.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本ではCBAM対応が輸出企業の課題となっており、国内炭素価格の設計や排出原単位改善の重要性を示す示唆に富む。特に、鉄鋼・セメント等の素材産業における国際競争力維持の観点で参考になる。

In the global GX context

This paper provides empirical evidence on how CBAM affects non-EU exporters, relevant for global discussions on carbon border adjustments and domestic carbon pricing. It underscores the need for coordinated climate policy to maintain export competitiveness while decarbonizing industry.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:CBAMの影響評価と国内炭素価格の効果を定量化した手法は、他国・他産業への応用に有用。

🏢実務担当者:輸出企業はCBAMコスト試算と国内ETS活用の戦略立案に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:国内炭素価格の導入と低炭素技術への資金配分の重要性を示す政策エビデンス。

📄 Abstract（原文）

The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) introduces significant implications for sustainable trade and industrial decarbonization for non-EU industrial exporters. As a major cement supplier to the EU, Turkey faces key economic and environmental transition risks under this framework. This study quantifies the compliance exposure of Turkey’s cement exports to the EU by 2030 within an industrial sustainability framework across multiple carbon pricing, domestic policy, and decarbonization scenarios. Incorporating time-series forecasting, benchmark emissions intensities, and the operational 2026 CBAM regulatory framework alongside Turkey’s Climate Law No. 7552, the study evaluates compliance costs relative to export revenues. Results indicate that under business-as-usual conditions, without decarbonization or domestic carbon pricing, CBAM surcharges would equal 154% of total export revenue by 2030. Accounting for the 2030 CBAM phase-in factor (48.5%), compliance costs remain substantial at 75% of revenue. Establishing a national Emissions Trading System (TR ETS) under Climate Law No. 7552, with a domestic carbon price of €20/tCO2e, reduces residual CBAM border payments to 44% of revenue, while a €50/tCO2e domestic price offsets border surcharges entirely, redirecting carbon revenues to an industrial green transition fund. Furthermore, achieving a 41% reduction in direct cement emissions intensity lowers total carbon compliance costs to 21–26% of revenue. These findings demonstrate that domestic carbon pricing paired with dedicated resource allocation for low-carbon technologies is essential to advance long-term industrial sustainability, preserve export competitiveness, and prevent pass-through risks to downstream construction sectors.

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