Financial Risk Analysis of Green Certificate Market Based on Sustainable Development of Renewable Energy
再生可能エネルギーの持続可能な発展に基づくグリーン証書市場の財務リスク分析 (AI 翻訳)
Zhang Z
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は中国のグリーン証書市場を対象に、目標-メカニズム-リスク-ガバナンスの枠組みで財務リスクを分析。2023年以降のデータから新証書プレミアムや流動性パラドックスを実証し、総合リスク指数の上昇を示した。
English
This study analyzes financial risks in China's green certificate market using a goal-mechanism-risk-governance framework. Using public data from China's National Energy Administration, it finds a significant 'new certificate premium', an 'old certificate discount', and a liquidity paradox. The comprehensive financial risk index rose from 0.45 to 0.58 over the study period.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも非化石証書市場が拡大しており、中国の事例は市場設計や流動性リスクの示唆に富む。政策不確実性がリスクに与える影響は日本でも注視すべき点。
In the global GX context
This empirical study from China contributes to understanding the financial risks of green certificate markets globally. The findings on liquidity, pricing anomalies, and concentration risk are relevant as many countries expand renewable certificate trading.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on green certificate market dynamics and a risk analysis framework applicable to other markets.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the impact of policy uncertainty and market design on certificate market risk, useful for regulators designing renewable energy support mechanisms.
📄 Abstract（原文）
<title>Abstract</title> <p>This study aims to promote the sustainable development of renewable energy and accurately identify the key financial risks in the green certificate market. Proceeding from the logic of "goal-mechanism-risk-governance", it constructs an integrated risk analysis framework covering both the market dimension and the financial dimension. This study also conducts an empirical study based on public data from sources such as the National Energy Administration of China. The experimental results show that: The average price of green certificates in the second quarter rises from 2.31 yuan to 3.40 yuan, with a significant jump (among which the maximum month-on-month growth rate reached + 63.24%). There exists a significant "new certificate premium" and "old certificate discount", the average price of certificates for the new production year further climbed from 4.12 yuan to 6.48 yuan. While the price of certificates of "2023 and earlier" drops to as low as 0.33 yuan. The improvement of market depth lags behind, with an average bid-ask spread of approximately 0.85 yuan and the Amihud ratio rising to 0.022, presenting a liquidity paradox of "volume increase yet shallow depth". In terms of the financial dimension, the concentration of market entities is relatively high (the proportion of the top five entities was over 60% in all cases). The rising policy uncertainty and tightened credit constraints jointly increase risk exposure, and the comprehensive financial risk index rises from 0.45 to 0.58. Therefore, the research in this study makes a certain contribution to the research fields of green finance and renewable energy market risk management.</p>
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9824465/v1first seen 2026-07-17 04:31:07
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