Uneven provincial pathways to China’s land-use carbon emissions peak
中国の土地利用炭素排出ピークへの不均一な省別経路 (AI 翻訳)
Wanxu Chen, Yelin Peng, Jie Zeng, Sipei Pan, Jiale Liang, Chuanglin Fang, H. Ma, Lunche Wang, Shaojian Wang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の土地利用炭素排出（LCE）の省別分析により、2000～2020年の歴史的傾向と2020～2100年の将来シナリオを統合。間接排出は北部の重工業地帯で集中し、直接排出は安定。全国LCEは2030～2035年頃にピークを迎えるが、約半数の省で遅延し、排出ホットスポットは南東部に移動する。地域別の排出削減戦略の必要性を強調。
English
This study analyzes land-use carbon emissions (LCE) across 30 Chinese provinces from 2000-2020 and projects scenarios to 2100. Historical indirect emissions show spatial polarization in northern heavy-industry provinces, while direct emissions remain stable. National LCE peaks around 2030-2035, but nearly half of provinces experience delayed peaks, with hotspots shifting southeastward. Findings underscore the need for region-specific mitigation strategies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の土地利用炭素排出の地域差を定量化した研究で、日本の都道府県別排出管理やSSBJ開示における地域特性考慮の参考になる可能性がある。ただし、直接的な日本GX政策への応用は限定的。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a detailed subnational analysis of land-use carbon emissions in China, relevant for global climate policy discussions on regional heterogeneity. It offers insights for countries like Japan that need to balance national targets with local mitigation capacities, though the focus is China-specific.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a methodological framework for subnational land-use carbon accounting and scenario analysis applicable to other regions.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of region-specific emission peak timing and mitigation strategies for national climate targets.
📄 Abstract（原文）
China’s commitment to carbon neutrality necessitates precise spatial management of land-use carbon emissions (LCE), yet subnational heterogeneity of mitigation potential remains inadequately quantified. Here, we combine retrospective analysis (2000–2020) with future scenario projections (2020–2100) across 30 Chinese provinces, revealing substantial regional disparities in emission trajectories and peak timings. In historical LCE, indirect emissions linked to energy consumption exhibited pronounced spatial polarization, particularly in northern provinces dominated by heavy industries, whereas direct emissions from terrestrial ecosystems remained relatively stable. Scenario analyses demonstrate national LCE will peak around 2030–2035, yet nearly half of the provinces will experience delayed peaks. Emission hotspots are projected to shift southward, exacerbating pressures on southeastern provinces characterized by rapid urban growth and constrained carbon sink capacities. Our findings highlight the critical need for regional mitigation strategies that jointly consider emission peak timing, magnitude, and long-term reduction trajectories, informing targeted governance towards China’s climate goals. China’s national land-use carbon emissions will peak around 2030–2035, yet nearly half of the provinces exhibit delayed peaks, and hotspots are projected to shift southward, exacerbating pressures in rapidly urbanizing regions, according to scenario-based model simulations.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03435-wfirst seen 2026-05-05 19:12:50
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