インドの農業GHG排出軌道と緩和経路：AFOLU_Indiaモデルによるシナリオ分析
Agricultural GHG Emission Trajectories and Mitigation Pathways for India: A Scenario-Based Analysis using the AFOLU_India Model (原題)
Khan, Qumer Ahmed, Arya, Joyal Arya, Patel, Rutva Patel, Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma, Avashia, Vidhee, Chauhan, Jaypalsinh, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Garg, Amit
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インド農業のGHG排出を2050年まで投影するAFOLU-Indiaモデルを構築し、4シナリオで緩和ポテンシャルと削減コストを評価した研究。排出は2005年の約345Mtから2050年に390〜505Mt CO₂eqへ増加し、腸内発酵が全体の55%を占める。炭素価格25ドル/tの追加効果は小さく、非価格政策と「ノーリグレット」型対策（バイパスプロテイン給餌、SRI、必要量施肥）の重要性を示す。
English
This study builds AFOLU-India, a model recalibrated for Indian agriculture, to project GHG emissions to 2050 and assess mitigation potential and abatement costs across four scenarios. Emissions rise from ~345 Mt CO2eq (2005) to 390–505 Mt by 2050, with enteric fermentation at 55%. Mitigation potential without carbon pricing is 16–22 Mt (4–6%), and most measures are no-regret cost-saving options.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本にとって直接の政策対象ではないが、農業由来排出の削減コスト評価手法は、食料・農業分野のScope 3やサプライチェーン排出管理を検討する日本企業・政策担当者にとって参考になる。
In the global GX context
Adds sector-specific, country-level mitigation-cost evidence for agriculture, a hard-to-abate sector often underweighted in TCFD/ISSB disclosure and transition-finance debates; the no-regret finding supports non-price policy design globally.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:農業部門の緩和コスト曲線とシナリオモデリング手法の実例として参照できる。
🏢実務担当者:食品・農業サプライチェーンのScope 3排出削減策と費用対効果の検討に示唆を与える。
🏛政策担当者:炭素価格だけに頼らない農業気候政策とノーリグレット対策の優先順位づけに有用。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Agriculture accounts for over 14% of India's total greenhouse gas emissions and is one of the most complex sector to decarbonize due to its inextricable connections to food security, rural livelihoods, and demographic expansion. This study introduces the AFOLU-India model, a customized adaptation of the AFOLUB model that is recalibrated for Indian agricultural systems, emission factors, and policy parameters. It aims to project greenhouse gas emissions and assess the mitigation potential and abatement costs of countermeasures applied to four agricultural emission sources: enteric fermentation, manure management, managed soils, and rice cultivation, for the year 2050. Four scenarios are constructed based on two government reports: a CPS that mirrors existing trajectories; a Viksit Bharat scenario that corresponds with India’s high-income growth aspirations; a Net Zero (NZ) scenario aimed at deep decarbonization; and an integrated scenario that combines both developmental and climatic objectives. Total agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase from roughly 345 Mt CO₂eq in 2005 to between 390 and 505 Mt CO₂eq by 2050 across all four scenarios, with enteric fermentation consistently accounting for 55% of the total emissions. Across scenarios, the key findings are: (a) the total mitigation potential without a carbon price is estimated to be between 16 and 22 Mt CO₂eq by 2050 (4–6% of projected emissions), with minimal additional benefits from a USD 25/t CO₂eq carbon price, highlighting the importance of non-price policy instruments in India's agricultural climate transition; (b) most of the countermeasures are ‘No Regret’ options, as they simultaneously reduce emissions while saving cost; (c) the following are the most cost effective countermeasures by source of emission, Feeding Bypass Protein and balanced ration for enteric fermentation, System of Rice Intensification (SRI) for rice, and Need based fertilizer application instead of complete fertilizer subsidy elimination for managed soil.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/24159596first seen 2026-11-13 04:14:08
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