南米諸国における段階的エネルギー移行
Gradual energy transition in South American countries (原題)
Luccas Assis Attílio
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ブラジルのエタノール生産を中心に、段階的エネルギー移行の効果をGVARとSVARモデルで分析。12カ国を対象に、再生可能エネルギー増加と炭素排出増加、アマゾン森林減少の抑制、エタノール価格上昇などの波及効果を確認。貿易統合が影響を媒介し、アルゼンチンは脆弱、チリは低脆弱性。段階的移行の限界を警告。
English
This study simulates a gradual energy transition in Brazil based on ethanol production, using GVAR and SVAR models across 12 South American countries (2002-2023). Results show increased renewable energy but also higher carbon emissions in most countries, reduced Amazon deforestation, and rising ethanol prices, with spillovers partly explained by trade integration. Argentina is highly vulnerable, Chile less so. The authors warn that gradual approaches may be insufficient to meet climate goals.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のエネルギー政策は再生可能エネルギー導入と化石燃料依存のバランスが課題であり、本論文の段階的移行の限界は示唆に富む。ただし、南米特有の文脈であり、日本への直接適用は限定的。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global energy transition scholarship by empirically demonstrating the limitations of gradual approaches, relevant for countries designing transition strategies. It highlights cross-country spillover effects and trade integration, informing international climate policy discussions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of gradual energy transitions and cross-country spillovers.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for comprehensive transition strategies beyond gradual renewable expansion.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Energy transition can occur through a proportionally greater increase in renewable energy production compared to fossil fuel energy. This study explores that possibility by simulating a gradual energy transition based on ethanol production in Brazil, one of the world's leading ethanol producers. The concept of a gradual energy transition refers to a scenario in which Brazil increases its production of both ethanol and oil, but with ethanol growing at a faster rate. The empirical analysis relies on two econometric models: GVAR and SVAR. The sample includes 12 South American countries over the period from 2002 to 2023. The results show that a gradual energy transition leads to higher renewable energy production and increased carbon emissions in most countries, along with reduced deforestation in the Amazon Forest and rising ethanol prices. These spillover effects are partially explained by trade integration. Argentina, Brazil's main trade partner, appears highly vulnerable to the effects of Brazil's energy transition. In contrast, Chile—another significant trade partner—shows low vulnerability. Venezuela, as a major oil producer, also represents an exception to the general pattern. These findings highlight the importance of national energy strategies in understanding cross-country spillover effects. Ultimately, this paper serves as a warning regarding the limitations of gradual approaches to energy transition. In the case of Brazil, ethanol-driven transition was insufficient to reduce carbon emissions, which may jeopardize long-term environmental goals.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115538first seen 2026-08-24 04:50:50
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