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物質蓄積から炭素ロックインへ：広東・香港・マカオ地域における建築資材ストックと内包炭素の時空間動態

From Material Accumulation to Carbon Lock-In: Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Building Material Stocks and Embodied Carbon in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Region (原題)

Shuangping Cao, Da He, Yongjie Du, Weiguang Cai

Buildings📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-20#炭素会計Origin: CN経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: construction
DOI: 10.3390/buildings16204157
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings16204157

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

広東・香港・マカオの23都市を対象に、2010〜2020年の1kmグリッド建築資材ストックデータを用い、ストック差分法と内包炭素会計を組み合わせて分析した。累積資材ストックは19.41%増加した一方、年間増分内包炭素は2011年の100.60Mtから2020年の24.34Mtへ75.81%減少し、「収縮・集中」パターンが確認された。人口・経済ベースの強度とホットスポットの乖離から、都市平均強度が低くても炭素ロックインリスクは低いとは限らないと示し、23都市を5類型に分類した。

English

Using 1 km gridded building material stock data (2010–2020) across 23 cities in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao region, this study combines stock-difference and embodied carbon accounting with spatial autocorrelation and urban typology analysis. Cumulative material stocks rose 19.41% while annual incremental embodied carbon fell 75.81% (100.60 to 24.34 Mt CO2), forming a 'contraction–concentration' pattern. Mismatches between population- and economy-based intensity and local hotspots show that low citywide average intensity does not imply low carbon lock-in risk; the 23 cities are classified into five lock-in risk types.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

建物ストックの内包炭素と炭素ロックインを都市別に評価する手法は、日本での既存建築物の省エネ改修・解体時炭素管理や、自治体レベルの脱炭素計画策定に示唆を与える。Scope 3 の建物・建設由来排出の把握や、地域別の移行リスク評価に関心を持つ読者に有用。

In the global GX context

This work extends embodied carbon accounting beyond single intensity metrics toward stock-based carbon lock-in risk, relevant to ISSB/CSRD disclosure of Scope 3 building and construction emissions and to transition-risk assessment at the subnational level. The urban typology approach offers a transferable framework for cities worldwide managing existing building stock renewal.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:建物ストックの内包炭素を時空間・ロックインリスクの観点で評価する手法と都市類型化の枠組みを参考にできる。

🏢実務担当者:建設・不動産企業が既存ストックの改修・更新に伴う内包炭素とロックインリスクを把握する際の評価視点を提供する。

🏛政策担当者:新築偏重ではなく既存ストック更新と地域ホットスポットを組み合わせたライフサイクル型の低炭素建築政策の設計に資する。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Existing studies on embodied carbon in buildings have mainly focused on total accounting or single intensity indicators, with limited attention to long-term material accumulation, annual incremental embodied carbon, and inter-city differences in carbon lock-in risk. This study examines the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao region, comprising 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province together with Hong Kong and Macao. Based on 1 km gridded building material stock data from 2010 to 2020, we combined stock-difference and embodied carbon accounting, spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis, population- and economy-based intensity assessment, and urban typology identification to reveal the spatiotemporal differences in material accumulation, annual incremental embodied carbon, and carbon lock-in risk. The results show that cumulative building material stocks increased by 19.41% from 2010 to 2020, while annual incremental embodied carbon declined from 100.60 Mt CO2 in 2011 to 24.34 Mt CO2 in 2020, a decrease of 75.81%. This indicates that continued long-term material accumulation coexisted with a substantial decline in current incremental carbon pressure. Spatially, annual incremental embodied carbon contracted from continuous high-value belts to a small number of localized growth nodes, forming a clear “contraction–concentration” pattern. Clear mismatches were also observed among population-based intensity, economy-based intensity, and local hotspots, indicating that lower citywide average intensity does not necessarily imply lower carbon lock-in risk. By further integrating existing stocks, lock-in formation pressure, and efficiency burden, the 23 cities were classified into five combinations of carbon lock-in risk. These findings suggest that regional low-carbon governance of buildings should move beyond a singular focus on new construction and toward lifecycle-based differentiated management that jointly addresses existing stock renewal, remaining incremental pressure, and local hotspots.

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