容量拡大と系統統合の狭間にあるドイツの電力供給：拡大経済性・冬季電力供給・季節間蓄エネルギーに関する実証研究

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:容量・発電量・時間的可用性を分離して評価する実証枠組みと、時間別データに基づく需給ギャップ計測の手法が参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:再エネ調達比率だけでなく、出力抑制・系統混雑・蓄電時間を織り込んだ電力調達リスクとコスト評価の必要性を示す。

🏛政策担当者:再エネ導入目標を設備容量や年間比率で測るのではなく、時間的需給一致・調整力・系統統合コストで評価する政策設計への転換を促す。

An Empirical Investigation of Expansion Economics, Winter Electricity Supply, and Seasonal Energy Storage This 100-page study examines the development of Germany's electricity system from 1995 to 2026, focusing on the relationship between installed photovoltaic and wind power capacity, actual electricity generation, temporal availability, and system-wide integration requirements. The central research question is whether increasing annual shares of wind and solar electricity are sufficient indicators of an economically efficient and reliable electricity supply, or whether further capacity expansion creates additional requirements for electricity grids, energy storage, dispatchable generation, and the management of surplus electricity. The investigation combines historical generation and consumption statistics, quarter-hourly electricity data, documented renewable energy curtailment, grid congestion costs, electricity market indicators, and comparisons with six other European electricity systems. It also examines simultaneous wind and solar generation observations from 31 October 2026 across Germany, western Denmark, the Netherlands, Poland, and Lithuania. Key findings Annual electricity generation: In 2025, wind and solar power generated a combined 226.361 TWh in Germany, while documented renewable electricity curtailment reached 9.379 TWh. Periods of low generation: In 2025, combined wind and solar output remained below 10% of the respective monthly reference capacity for a cumulative 3,564.25 hours. Extended supply deficits: During a continuous 89.75-hour period of low renewable generation in February 2025, electricity demand amounted to 5.724 TWh. Wind and solar supplied 0.726 TWh, leaving 4.998 TWh to be covered by other sources. 100% annual generation scenario: Under a model in which annual wind and solar generation equals Germany's annual electricity demand, the 2025 reference profile still produces approximately 133.11 TWh of temporally unmet demand, alongside an equivalent amount of surplus generation at other times. Multi-year assessment: The investigation extends the modelling to the complete calendar years 2023 and 2024 and includes a continuous three-year energy balance. The results demonstrate the significance of interannual variability and long-duration energy storage requirements. The study further examines hypothetical wind and solar expansion pathways, residual electricity demand, the declining direct utilization of additional photovoltaic generation under specified modelling assumptions, and the economic implications of increasing installed capacity without corresponding system integration. Central conclusion Installed generation capacity, annual electricity production, and renewable electricity shares are not interchangeable indicators of electricity supply security. A system capable of generating sufficient electricity over an entire year does not necessarily deliver that electricity at the times when it is required. Consequently, assessing the economic and technical feasibility of further renewable energy expansion requires consideration of temporal demand coverage, surplus electricity, grid constraints, storage duration, dispatchable capacity, and total system costs. The analysis explicitly distinguishes observed data from hypothetical scenarios and modelling assumptions. It does not claim to provide a complete national electricity system cost optimization. Unverified hydrogen availability, hypothetical energy imports, and storage capacities not demonstrated to exist are not credited as available supply resources. The purpose of this publication is to contribute a quantitative, evidence-based perspective to the energy transition debate and to encourage evaluation of electricity systems based on usable energy, temporal reliability, integration requirements, and long-term economic sustainability rather than installed gigawatts alone.

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/23848119first seen 2026-11-01 04:12:44 · last seen 2026-11-03 04:13:11