ナイジェリアの2060年ネットゼロ目標達成におけるブルー水素の潜在的役割

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:生産ゲート炭素強度とプラント全体回収率を区別する再現可能なスクリーニング手法が参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:新興国での水素・CCS事業の炭素強度算定や炭素価格感応度評価の枠組みとして活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:炭素価格設計とCO2輸送・地中貯留の規制枠組み整備の重要性を示す。

Nigeria must reconcile a net-zero-by-2060 commitment with development of a gas-rich economy holding 215.19 Tcf of proven reserves. It flared 203.97 bcf in 2025, 7.54% of reported production. This study tests whether blue hydrogen from steam methane reforming (SMR) with carbon capture and storage (CCS) offers a credible transition pathway by quantifying production-gate carbon intensity, levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH), facility-scale emissions displacement and regulatory requirements. A screening well-to-production-gate model compares grey SMR, SMR with shifted-syngas capture, and advanced SMR capturing both shifted syngas and reformer flue gas. The primary blue case captures 95% of syngas CO2 and 85% of flue-gas CO2, equivalent to 91% plant-wide capture. Carbon intensity includes residual plant CO2, upstream non-methane emissions and fugitive methane at the IPCC AR6 fossil-methane GWP100 of 29.8. A discounted cash-flow model for 500 t H2/d evaluates matched low, central and high cases across technical, cost, financing and capacity-factor inputs. The central dual-capture case has production-gate carbon intensity of 2.42 kg CO2e/kg H2 versus 10.34 for grey hydrogen, a 76.6% reduction. Syngas-only capture reaches 57% plant-wide capture, 5.47 kg CO2e/kg H2 and a 47.0% reduction. Across matched scenarios, dual-capture blue hydrogen ranges from 1.68 to 3.97 kg CO2e/kg H2, grey hydrogen from 9.85 to 11.30, and reductions from 64.9% to 82.9%. Central LCOH is $1.51/kg H2 for dual capture and $0.84/kg H2 for grey; respective ranges are $1.05-$2.09 and $0.55-$1.21. Cost parity requires $84/tCO2e centrally and $61-$120/tCO2e across scenarios. At 500,000 t H2/yr, displacement is 3.67-4.08 MtCO2e/yr, 3.96 centrally. Central feedstock demand is about 88 bcf/yr, a national scale comparator rather than evidence of deliverable flare gas. Raising methane leakage from 0.5% to 2.0% adds 1.58 kg CO2e/kg H2. The study provides a reproducible Nigeria-specific screening model based on stated efficiencies and costs. It distinguishes capture-unit efficiency from plant-wide capture, tests blue cases against matched grey baselines, and connects feasibility to Nigeria's petroleum-law architecture and the unresolved framework for CO2 transport and geological storage.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.2118/235531-msfirst seen 2026-11-05 05:48:09 · last seen 2026-11-06 05:21:53