外部不確実性下におけるエネルギー安全保障リスクと世界のエネルギー転換：74カ国からのエビデンス
Energy security risk and the global energy transition under external uncertainty: evidence from 74 countries (原題)
Tian Liu, Jianguo Liu, Tao Ling, He He
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
1980〜2022年の74カ国パネルデータを用い、エネルギー安全保障リスク（ESR）がエネルギー転換（ET）に与える影響を二方向固定効果モデルで分析。ESRはETを促進するが、経済政策不確実性（EPU）はこの効果を弱め、地政学リスク（GPR）・戦争は強める。再生可能エネルギー比率が高い国・高中所得国で効果が強く、エネルギー輸出国では資源の呪いにより負に転じる。政策環境の安定化や地政学リスクのエネルギー計画への統合、輸出国向けの差別化戦略を提言。
English
Using a 74-country panel (1980-2022) with two-way fixed effects, this study examines how energy security risk (ESR) affects energy transition (ET), moderated by economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR). ESR promotes ET, but EPU weakens this effect while GPR, geopolitical actions, and war strengthen it. Effects are stronger in high-renewable and upper-middle-income countries, but negative in energy exporters due to the resource curse. Policy implications include diversification, stabilizing policy environments, integrating geopolitical risk into energy planning, and differentiated strategies for exporters.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はエネルギー自給率が低く、調達リスクと地政学リスクに晒されるため、ESRが転換を促すという知見はGX政策・エネルギー安全保障計画に直接示唆を与える。EPUの緩和効果は、政策の予見可能性確保（SSBJ・GX債等の制度安定）の重要性を裏付ける。
In the global GX context
For global disclosure scholarship, this paper links energy security and geopolitical uncertainty to transition dynamics, complementing TCFD/ISSB climate-risk framing with macro-level transition-risk evidence. It supports transition finance narratives by showing how policy uncertainty distorts decarbonization investment signals.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:エネルギー安全保障と地政学・政策不確実性が転換速度を条件付ける実証枠組みを提供する。
🏢実務担当者:調達・立地戦略において地政学リスクと政策不確実性を織り込む必要性を示す。
🏛政策担当者:政策環境の安定化とエネルギー多様化、輸出国向け差別化戦略の設計に資する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
As climate change intensifies and the global energy crisis deepens, the energy transition has become a central policy priority for both developed and developing nations. However, rising concerns over energy security, coupled with increasing economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, complicate the transition process. This study investigates the effect of energy security risk (ESR) on energy transition (ET), while considering the moderating roles of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR). A panel dataset covering 74 countries from 1980 to 2022 is analyzed using a two-way fixed effects model, which controls for both country-specific and time-specific heterogeneity. To ensure the robustness of the findings, several checks are performed, including the use of alternative energy transition measures, subsample periods, and endogeneity tests. The empirical results reveal that higher ESR significantly promotes global ET. However, this effect is conditional on external uncertainty. Specifically, EPU weakens the positive effect of ESR on ET, whereas GPR, geopolitical actions, and war strengthen this effect. Heterogeneity analysis further demonstrates that the effect is stronger in countries with higher shares of renewable energy production and in upper-middle-income economies, while it turns negative in energy-exporting countries, likely due to the resource curse, where heavy reliance on fossil fuel exports hampers the adoption of renewable energy. These findings highlight the complex interplay between energy security and external uncertainty in shaping energy transition dynamics. Policy implications include the need for enhanced energy diversification, the stabilization of policy environments to reduce uncertainty-induced distortions, the integration of geopolitical risks into energy planning, and the adoption of differentiated transition strategies for energy-exporting economies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-026-09083-xfirst seen 2026-09-19 05:12:56
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