Quantifying Demand Shocks in the Green and Digital Transition
グリーンおよびデジタル移行における需要ショックの定量化 (AI 翻訳)
Andrea Bastianin, Luca Rossini, Marco Zoso
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ウェブ検索データからコバルト、銅、ニッケルの派生需要指数を構築し、SVARモデルで供給ショックと需要ショックを識別。移行需要ショックは銅とニッケルに持続的な価格効果をもたらす。
English
Using web search data to construct monthly demand indexes for cobalt, copper, and nickel, this paper applies SVAR models to disentangle supply and demand shocks. Transition demand shocks driven by green and digital technologies have persistent price effects, especially for copper and nickel.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はこれらの金属を多く輸入するため、価格変動の要因分析はエネルギー移行のコスト評価や資源安全保障政策に直接貢献する。
In the global GX context
The analysis provides a novel method to isolate demand shocks from green/digital transition in critical mineral markets, offering insights for global commodity price forecasting and supply chain risk management.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Novel use of web search data in SVAR to identify transition-specific demand shocks in metal markets, relevant for empirical energy transition research.
🏢実務担当者:Helps commodity traders and supply chain managers understand drivers of metal price fluctuations linked to the green transition.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the persistent price impact of transition demand, informing policies on critical mineral supply security and strategic reserves.
📄 Abstract（原文）
We use web search data to construct monthly indexes of derived demand for cobalt, copper, and nickel, which are key inputs in technologies driving the energy and digital transitions. We incorporate these indexes into Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models of global metal markets and identify structural shocks using zero, sign, and magnitude restrictions. This approach disentangles supply shocks from several demand-side drivers of metal prices and isolates a transition demand (TD) shock linked to the diffusion of metal-intensive technologies. We find that TD shocks generate persistent price effects, especially for copper and nickel, whereas supply and metal-specific demand shocks are more immediate and less persistent.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.27842first seen 2026-07-20 04:43:16
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gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。