投影のなかで失われて：気候リスク・脆弱性評価における不確実性の誤表現
Lost in Projection: Uncertainty is Misrepresented in Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (原題)
Patrick Curran, Kendrick Hardaway, Tom McLeod Logan
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
世界39件の気候リスク・脆弱性評価を海面上昇を事例に構造的にレビューした研究。深い不確実性を正しく表現した文書は54%にとどまり、71%の意思決定がシナリオを単一の投影として誤用していた。科学と適応計画実務の乖離を示し、不確実性の定量化だけでなく特性化と、深い不確実性下の意思決定支援ツールの活用を求める。
English
A structured review of 39 global climate risk and vulnerability assessments using sea level rise as a case study. Only 54% correctly represented deep uncertainty, and 71% of decisions misapplied scenarios as single projections. It exposes a gap between climate science and adaptation planning, urging better uncertainty characterization and decision-support tools.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では気候変動適応法や自治体の適応計画、TCFD/SSBJのシナリオ分析が広がる。本稿はシナリオを単一予測として扱う誤用を警告し、企業・自治体の気候リスク開示やインフラ投資判断の質向上に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
As TCFD/ISSB scenario analysis becomes mandatory, this paper warns that treating scenarios as single projections undermines disclosure quality. It adds empirical evidence on how deep uncertainty is mishandled in adaptation planning, relevant to global climate-risk disclosure and infrastructure investment practice.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:気候リスク評価における不確実性表現の実態と、科学-実務ギャップの定量化に関心がある研究者に有用。
🏢実務担当者:TCFD/SSBJシナリオ分析で単一予測に陥らず、深い不確実性を意思決定に組み込む手法の参考になる。
🏛政策担当者:適応計画やインフラ投資の指針策定で、不確実性の特性化と意思決定支援ツール導入の必要性を示す。
📄 Abstract（原文）
In practice, many climate change risk assessments fail to capture the true depth of uncertainty. Despite widespread scientific recognition of deep uncertainty (large ranges of possibility) in climate conditions, this nuance is often lost in translation to policy and planning contexts; instead, conditions are presented as single projections. This means that communities are making large-scale infrastructure investments and long-term policy commitments based on false precision, leaving them unprepared for climate surprises or potentially wasting resources and disrupting communities unnecessarily by overadapting. To examine how climate uncertainties are represented and accounted for in adaptation planning, we conducted a structured review of 39 climate risk and vulnerability assessments from across the world, using sea level rise as a case study. These documents inform policy that guides billions of dollars in infrastructure investments and shape community preparedness strategies. Our analysis reveals that only 54% of these documents correctly represent sea level rise as deeply uncertain. This issue is compounded when making decisions; 71% of decisions were made by misapplying scenarios as individual projections to plan for, rather than as a tool for exploring potential future conditions, directly contradicting their intended use. This demonstrates a gap between scientific understanding of climate uncertainty and planning practice. Addressing this gap requires improved uncertainty communication, moving beyond just quantifying uncertainty to also characterizing uncertainty. This must be done in conjunction with the support of decision makers to incorporate a stronger understanding of uncertainty into planning by using tools designed specifically for decision making in deeply uncertain environments.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70331first seen 2026-09-24 04:37:44
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。