Carbon threshold governance: Resolving the building Policy-Carbon Paradox with blockchain-AI

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🔬研究者:A new theoretical model (sigmoidal thresholds) and empirical evidence on carbon pricing effectiveness, with a practical blockchain-AI MRV system.

🏢実務担当者:A data-driven framework (TPF) with blockchain MRV that reduces uncertainty and costs, applicable to corporate decarbonization strategies and green building projects.

🏛政策担当者:Concrete carbon price thresholds ($120 and $200/tCO2) and a policy design (PTE Loop) that can enhance carbon pricing mechanisms and align with 1.5°C goals.

The building sector faces a critical “Policy-Carbon Paradox”: while carbon pricing covers 23% of global emissions, it addresses only 12.7% of construction emissions, resulting in a 7.6-fold decarbonization lag. To resolve this, we propose a Threshold-regulated Policy Framework (TPF) that leverages blockchain-AI fusion for dynamic carbon governance. Empirically, we identify two critical carbon price thresholds: a material substitution tipping point at $120 ± 15/tCO2 (p < 0.01) and an energy system transformation point at $200/tCO2 (Internal Rate of Return (IRR) > 8%). Theoretically, these sigmoidal thresholds supersede the conventional Environmental Kuznets Curve, demonstrating a 0.38 R2 improvement over static models. Methodologically, an ISO 14064-3:2019-compliant blockchain-Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system achieves a 73% reduction in measurement uncertainty (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.48 kg CO2e/tonne) and enables real-time policy adjustments with 2.3 ± 0.7-h latency. This activates a self-reinforcing Policy-Technology-Environment (PTE) Loop, driving a 17-fold growth in green bond issuance and increasing prefabrication penetration by 51.4 percentage points. Applied regionally, the framework reduces decarbonization costs by 38.2% in China (φ-adjusted Emissions Trading System (ETS)), cuts embodied carbon by 55% in the EU (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Building Information Modeling (CBAM-BIM) integration), and slashes verification costs by 72.4 ± 5.2% in the Global South (satellite-blockchain MRV). Collectively, this generates $2.8 ± 0.6 billion/year in health co-benefits through PM2.5 reduction. Our findings establish a scalable, data-driven pathway to close the building sector's decarbonization gap with a 92.3% probability of aligning with the 1.5 ℃ climate goal.

• openaire https://doi.org/10.59400/be3764first seen 2026-05-14 21:17:41