Urban metabolism in transition: a dynamic modeling of stock-flow-service nexus in the built environment
遷移期の都市代謝：建築環境におけるストック・フロー・サービス連関の動的モデリング (AI 翻訳)
Xiaoyi Liu, Zhongnan Ye, Shu-Chien Hsu, Chi-Sun Poon
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、香港の公営住宅セクターを対象に、動的物質フロー分析と将来ライフサイクル評価を統合したモデルを構築し、1950年から2100年までの建築ストック、エネルギー需要、GHG排出の長期的な遷移を評価した。結果、建築ストックは2050年までに約4900万m2で安定し、建設段階から維持段階へ移行すること、またグリッドの脱炭素化によりGHG排出がエネルギー需要から乖離して減少することが示された。この知見は、都市の持続可能な開発に向けた地域固有の政策介入の基盤となる。
English
This study develops an integrated model combining dynamic material flow analysis and prospective life cycle assessment to evaluate long-term transitions of building stock, energy demand, and GHG emissions in Hong Kong's public rental housing sector from 1950 to 2100. Results show that building stock stabilizes around 49 million m2 by 2050, shifting from construction to maintenance phase, and GHG emissions decouple from energy demand due to grid decarbonization. The findings support regional policy interventions for sustainable urban development.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
香港の事例だが、建築ストックの維持段階への移行とグリッド脱炭素化による排出削減の知見は、日本の建築セクター（例：既存ストックの長寿命化・省エネ改修）においても応用可能。ただし、日本の住宅政策やエネルギー構成の違いには注意が必要。
In the global GX context
This paper models the stock-flow-service nexus in urban built environments, demonstrating how grid decarbonization can decouple housing service provision from GHG emissions. The integrated modeling framework is valuable for global cities undergoing similar transitions, particularly in Asia, and contributes to literature on urban metabolism and climate mitigation.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a robust integrated modeling framework for urban metabolism that can be adapted to other cities or building sectors, and validates the decoupling hypothesis under grid decarbonization scenarios.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for building stock management and long-term planning of housing supply and retrofit strategies in cities with expanding public housing.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of coordinating building stock renewal with grid decarbonization policies to achieve urban GHG reduction targets.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Rapid urbanization has intensified construction activity, driving higher resource consumption and environmental pressures in cities. Understanding the urban metabolism of the building sector, specifically the stock-flow-service nexus, is essential for developing effective sustainability strategies. This study applies an integrated modeling framework, combining dynamic material flow analysis, and prospective life cycle assessment, to assess the long-term transitions of material stock, energy demand, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Hong Kong’s public rental housing (PRH) sector from 1950 to 2100. Results show that the PRH building stock expanded rapidly from the late 1970s and is anticipated to stabilize at around 49 million m 2 by 2050, marking a transition from a flow-intensive construction phase to a stock-maintenance phase focused on renewal. While the provision of housing services drives energy demand upward until mid-century, associated GHG emissions are expected to decouple and decline substantially, driven largely by grid decarbonization. These findings validate the importance of integrated modeling in understanding the stock-flow-service dynamic, providing a foundation for region-specific policy interventions aimed at sustainable urban development.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s44498-026-00092-2first seen 2026-06-07 04:37:22
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