Beyond Competitiveness: Futures of EU's competitiveness and sustainability and the importance of bioeconomy, industrial transformation, and critical raw materials

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🔬研究者:Researchers in sustainability transitions and foresight methods will find the scenario-building and Delphi approach valuable for analyzing policy pathways.

🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams in Europe can use the scenarios to stress-test their transition plans against different geopolitical and technological futures.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should note the identified needs for redefining competitiveness, accelerating circularity, and ensuring social fairness to achieve long-term sustainability goals.

This technical report presents the approach, steps of analysis and results of a foresight study which was set up to support the EEA in exploring of how Europe could combine competitiveness with sustainability, while avoiding environmental harm. To this end, the first step was to identify key factors influencing future European competitiveness. Subsequently, with the help of key factors, five scenarios were developed with the participation of experts and stakeholders, in which sustainability and competitiveness ambitions were achieved to varying degrees. In the third step, these visions of the future were used for a critical analysis of the EU's current competition-focused policy agenda. Sustainability experts from Eionet were then surveyed using the Delphi method. In the final stage of the analysis, the gaps and areas for action identified in the current policy agenda about impacts on social and environmental sustainability were reflected upon in a futures dialogue with EU policy experts, and options for closer integration of competitiveness and sustainability were discussed. This combination of different foresight methods enables the gradual integration of diverse foresight expertise and perspectives, as well as interdisciplinary analyses of the social, technological, economic, environmental and political factors that influence Europe's future. The process takes uncertainties into account, promotes broad participation by experts and stakeholders, and encourages debate on   interactions and potential tensions between competitiveness and sustainability goals. Scenario analysis forms the core of the study, as it systematically develops plausible but differing futures and illustrates that, depending on the different characteristics of the key influencing factors, very different degrees of policy goal achievement are possible. This leads to the realisation that, depending on future developments towards one of the possible scenarios, an adjustment of strategic targets and policy instruments will also be necessary. Key results Across social, technological, economic, environmental, and political domains, several high impact and high uncertainty factors drive Europe’s future space: global power dynamics, AI and deep learning, trust and fragmentation in policy, availability of raw materials, global security and conflicts, climate change vulnerability, trade and supply chain structures, and energy system transformation. Most lie outside the EU’s direct control, underscoring the need for robust, adaptive strategies. Based on combinations of different future developments of these key factors, five scenarios for Europe in 2040 have been developed and analysed regarding the achievements of sustainability and competitiveness goals. Cross-cutting challenges to achieve both, a sustainable and competitive Europe in the coming years synthesis identified are: A persistent geopolitical flux, intensifying climate impacts, AI as a central productivity and governance driver, growing competition for materials, and erosion of trust requiring renewed social contracts, energy fragmentation, governance complexity, data/AI standards divergence, monopoly power of data and platform companies, and digital security risks. Recurring opportunities include trustworthy AI and open ecosystems, circularity and efficiency, adaptation tech, coordinated grids and flexibility, strategic autonomy in bottleneck inputs, and ESG anchored partnerships. The gap analysis based on expert consultation in a Delphi survey and a Futures Dialogue with policymakers and stakeholders reveal the following needs for action to achieve both the competitiveness and social and environmental sustainability ambitions: Feasibility and timing: Most experts see 2040 targets (90% emissions cut, full circularity, zero pollution heavy industry) as possible in principle but unlikely at current pace; most expect longer timelines. Delivery hinges on stable, coherent regulation; deep investment; skills; social fairness; and resilient supply chains. Competitiveness paradigm: Strong calls to redefine competitiveness around wellbeing, resilience, and sufficiency. Without redistribution and participation, fragmentation and democratic erosion risk derailing transition. Strategic autonomy: Necessary but difficult; reduce demand for critical raw materials; accelerate circularity and substitution; diversify partnerships—without exporting externalities. Regulation and finance: Aim for smart, coherent, mission oriented regulation that reduces burdens without weakening safeguards. Attach green conditionalities to public funding; build enabling capital markets for transformative innovation while guarding against monopoly lock-in.‑oriented regulation that reduces burdens without weakening safeguards. Attach green conditionalities to public funding; build enabling capital markets for transformative innovation while guarding against monopoly lock‑in. Narrative and implementation: Reclaim the Green Deal narrative as prosperity and identity-building; invest in local adaptation; demonstrate visible benefits; monitor and course correct fast.‑correct fast. Further analyses of how these opportunities and risks can be addressed in the future were based on deep dive workshops on the three policy action areas Bioeconomy, Industrial Transformation and Critical Raw Materials and expert and policymaker consultations. Central tensions arise between short-term economic competitiveness and long-term ecological resilience. Examples are intensive agriculture or on-demand delivery. In agriculture, yields can be maximised via synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, which entails risks of long-term soil degradation, loss of biodiversity or water contamination. In logistics, next-day shipping helps win and keep customers, while transport emissions and congestion increase and put pressure on climate targets and air quality. Particularly, the pursuit of rapid industrial transformation and decarbonisation is constrained by technical challenges, investment needs, and critical raw materials availability. In addition, the scenarios illustrate impacts of challenges Europe is facing such as social fragmentation, uneven adaptation to technological change, and geopolitical fragility, all of which could undermine both environmental goals and economic stability. Thus, relying exclusively on technological solutions to increase competitiveness without also considering the need to reduce demand, restore nature and maintain social cohesion could result in no sustainable competitive advantage being achieved. This study concludes that a redefinition of the concept of competitiveness as a compass and overarching goal of the EU is highly needed, according to the foresight analysis of key influencing factors, the illustration of future challenges and opportunities in five scenarios, and the expert and stakeholder consultations. The recommended key policy measures are intended to contribute to promoting the circular economy, improving resource efficiency and promoting ecosystem restoration to preserve natural capital. Establishing sound governance that embraces openness, stakeholder engagement, and flexibility will strengthen legitimacy and adaptive capacity. Developing strategic autonomy through diversified supply chains and localised markets is vital to reduce vulnerabilities. Finally, ensuring social inclusiveness and investment in skills is critical to manage transitions fairly and maintain public trust. Achieving these goals requires not only technological innovation but also strong institutional frameworks and clear political direction that align economic ambitions with environmental imperatives. Thus, the foresight study concludes that Europe can achieve sustainable competitiveness by 2040 only by prioritising resilience and justice, reducing structural dependencies, and investing in enabling systems and social cohesion. The solutions are known; the challenge is pace, coherence, and legitimacy. Designing strategies that work across both cooperative and “hard” worlds and anchoring competitiveness in wellbeing will determine whether the EU shapes the global transition or adapts to others’ terms.

• openaire https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18620201first seen 2026-06-02 04:26:37 · last seen 2026-06-08 04:27:03