パリ協定気候目標達成に向けた世界の電力容量拡大における実装ギャップ
Implementation Gap in Global Power Capacity Expansion to meet Paris Agreement Climate Targets (原題)
Peipei Chen, Jing Meng, David M. Reiner, D’Maris Coffman, Xi Liang, Yixu He, Shihan Zhang, Dabo Guan
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
世界21万基超の発電ユニットを施設レベルデータと機械学習で分析し、計画中容量の実現確率を確率的に評価した研究。2030年までに公表済み計画容量の51%のみが稼働し、石炭を中心に約35%が中止されると推計。再エネが計画の主流でも2030年の電源構成は52%にとどまり、特にアジアは太陽光2488GW不足と石炭523GWの座礁資産を抱え1.5℃経路に届かないと示す。
English
Using facility-level data and machine learning across 215,849 power units, this study probabilistically assesses whether announced capacity will materialize. Only 51% of planned capacity is expected to operate by 2030, with ~35% of fossil (especially coal) projects canceled. Renewables reach just 52% of the global mix by 2030, and Asia faces the largest gap—needing 2,488 GW more solar while holding 523 GW of stranded coal—to stay on a 1.5°C path.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
再エネ導入の「計画と実装の乖離」を定量化した点は、日本の第7次エネルギー基本計画やGX推進戦略における電源構成目標の実現可能性を検証する材料になる。石炭の座礁資産リスクは日本の電力・金融セクターのトランジション・ファイナンス判断にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Provides a probabilistic, facility-level benchmark for the credibility of national capacity pledges, directly relevant to ISSB/transition-plan disclosure and to investors assessing whether corporate and sovereign decarbonization pipelines are deliverable. The stranded-coal estimates inform transition-finance risk in Asia.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:施設レベル確率モデルによる容量実現率の推計手法は、電源計画の実現可能性研究のベンチマークになる。
🏢実務担当者:自社の再エネ調達・発電計画の実現確率と座礁資産リスクを業界平均と比較する際の参照値として使える。
🏛政策担当者:電源計画の公表値と実装率の乖離を踏まえ、目標設定と進捗モニタリングの設計見直しに活用できる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Meeting the Paris Agreement’s climate targets demands an unprecedented expansion of renewable energy. Despite global commitments, significant implementation gaps persist due to economic, policy, and technical uncertainties. Here, we develop a Global Power Capacity Dynamics Framework, integrating facility-level data, machine learning and transition modeling to assess the feasibility of global power expansion. Analyzing 215,849 power plant units across five status modes (operating, planned, canceled, standby, retired), the framework explicitly incorporates the likelihood of planned capacity realization and the conversion of existing fossil assets. We find that by 2030, only 51% [40%–61%] of announced planned capacity is expected to become operational, while 26% [19%–36%] is likely to be canceled, with fossil fuel projects, especially coal, facing a cancellation rate of about 35%. Global operational capacity is projected to reach 9727 GW [9626–9848], including 178 GW [159–198] of existing fossil units requiring conversion or replacement (e.g., coal-to-gas, fossil-to-biomass). Although renewables dominate the planned pipeline, they are projected to constitute only 52% of the global energy mix by 2030, well below levels needed to meet climate goals. Regional disparities are pronounced: Asia, despite its relatively low cancellation rate, faces the world’s largest implementation gap, requiring an additional 2488 GW of solar and contending with 523 GW of stranded coal capacity to remain on a 1.5 °C pathway. This study provides the first probabilistic, facility-level assessment of global power capacity trajectories, revealing critical shortfalls in planned deployment and underscoring the urgency of aligning capacity expansion with climate targets.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c08309first seen 2026-11-06 05:04:46
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