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風力・太陽光発電は電力価格の変動性を高めたのか？そもそも電力価格の変動性とは何か

Have wind and solar energy increased electricity price volatility? And what is electricity price volatility, anyway? (原題)

L. Hirth

2026-11-07#エネルギー転換Origin: EU経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: power
原典: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a732af4fbb6539c187be58564fa38787fc605c84

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は電力価格の変動を「納入時刻間のばらつき（variability）」と「取引時刻間の変動（volatility）」に概念整理し、非貯蔵性と不確実性を根本要因とする代数モデルを提示する。ドイツの25年間（再エネ比率0→約50%）の実証では、variabilityはU字型、volatilityは低下傾向。欧州24ゾーンでもvariabilityは2010年代後半以降ほぼ全域で上昇し、太陽光比率と相関する。

English

The paper disentangles two conflated notions of electricity price variation: 'variability' across delivery times (driven by non-storability) and 'volatility' across trading times (driven by uncertainty), formalized in a simple day-ahead/imbalance market model. Using 25 years of German data as wind and solar rose from 0 to ~50% of generation, variability followed a U-shape while volatility declined. Across 24 European bidding zones, variability has risen since the late 2010s and scales with solar share.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

再エネ大量導入下での電力価格リスクを「ばらつき」と「変動」に分解する視点は、日本での需給調整市場・容量市場設計や、企業のPPA・電力調達リスク評価、インバランス料金を巡る議論に直接示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

Reframes the 'renewables raise price volatility' claim that underpins power-market design and hedging debates under TCFD/transition planning; relevant to EU market reform and to corporate renewable procurement and PPA risk disclosure globally.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:価格変動性の定義と計測を厳密化する枠組みとして、再エネ統合と市場設計の実証研究に有用。

🏢実務担当者:PPAや電力調達の価格リスクを『納入時刻のばらつき』と『取引変動』に分けて評価する視点を提供。

🏛政策担当者:需給調整・インバランス・容量市場の設計において、変動性の種類を区別した政策評価の必要性を示す。

📄 Abstract（原文）

It is widely held that wind and solar power increase the volatility of electricity prices. This paper argues that the literature conflates two distinct types of price variation: across delivery time and across trading time. Determined simultaneously in the same day-ahead auction, prices for power to be delivered in distinct quarter-hours differ. This price dispersion, which I call"variability", is rooted in non-storability. After that auction, trading continues in intraday markets until imbalance settlement. The price for the same delivery period changes as new information arises, e.g., weather forecasts. Such price"volatility"is ultimately caused by uncertainty. This paper develops a simple algebraic model of day-ahead and imbalance markets that provides a formal definition of variability and volatility, allows for a decomposition and derives the fundamental drivers, uncertainty and non-storability. It then provides empirical data on price variability and volatility for the past 25 years in Germany, during which the share of wind and solar energy increased from zero to nearly 50 % of generation. Volatility is measured with imbalance prices, intraday price indices and intraday transaction data. Variability followed a U-shaped trajectory, falling from the 2000s to the 2010s but increasing since then. Volatility, in contrast, declined over time. Across 24 European bidding zones, variability has risen since the late 2010s in almost all zones and increases with the share of solar power.

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