炭素回収・貯留（CCS）プロジェクトの費用便益分析：インドネシアのJawa 9 & 10発電所の事例
Cost-benefit analysis on carbon capture and storage (CCS) project: The case of Jawa 9 & 10 power plant in Indonesia (原題)
Tae Yong Jung, Sung Jin Kang, Seon Ju Lee, SeMin Park
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、インドネシアの石炭火力発電所（Jawa 9 & 10）におけるCCS導入の経済的実現可能性を、30年間の費用便益分析とモンテカルロシミュレーションで評価。国内炭素価格では費用便益比（BCR）0.5-0.6で非効率だが、国際価格では1.1-1.2で実現可能。パイプライン輸送が優位で、炭素価格の1%上昇がBCRを約1%向上させる。政策提言として炭素価格強化、譲許的融資、官民連携を挙げる。
English
This study evaluates the economic feasibility of CCS at Indonesia's Jawa 9 & 10 coal power plant using cost-benefit analysis and Monte Carlo simulation over 30 years. Domestic carbon prices yield a BCR of 0.5-0.6 (infeasible), while international prices achieve 1.1-1.2 (feasible). Pipeline transport outperforms shipping. A 1% carbon price increase raises BCR by ~1%. Policy priorities include enhancing carbon pricing, concessional financing, and public-private partnerships.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はアジアでの石炭火力輸出やCCS技術協力を進めており、本研究成果はインドネシアなど新興国でのCCS事業の経済性評価に示唆を与える。日本のCCS政策やJCM等の国際協力の枠組みと関連し、日本企業の海外CCS投資判断にも参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides project-level financial thresholds for CCS in a developing economy, informing global discussions on carbon pricing and transition finance. It complements ISSB/TCFD disclosure by quantifying the economic viability of CCS under different carbon pricing scenarios, relevant for investors and policymakers assessing climate transition risks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous CBA framework and sensitivity analysis for CCS projects in developing countries, useful for comparative studies.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into the financial viability of CCS under different carbon pricing mechanisms, aiding investment decisions and project structuring.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for enhanced carbon pricing and concessional financing to make CCS economically viable, informing policy design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
As Indonesia advances toward its net-zero emissions target, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is emerging as a vital mitigation strategy, especially for coal-based power generation. This study examines the economic feasibility of implementing CCS at the Jawa 9 & 10 coal-fired power plant in Suralaya, Indonesia, through a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) over 30 years. Four CCS scenarios are analyzed based on two transportation methods (pipeline, shipping) and two carbon pricing methods (domestic, international). Results show that domestic price scenarios yield a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 0.5–0.6, signaling financial infeasibility. In contrast, international price scenarios achieve a BCR of 1.1–1.2, reflecting stronger revenues from carbon credits. Pipeline transport consistently outperforms shipping due to lower operating costs. Sensitivity analysis highlights that a 1% increase in carbon price results in about a 1.003–1.005% increase in the BCR, while a 1 %age point increase in the discount rate decreases the BCR by about 3.8–4.3%. The findings suggest that under current pricing mechanisms, CCS remains economically unviable in Indonesia. Policy priorities include enhancing carbon pricing, expanding concessional financing, and fostering public-private partnerships to support large-scale CCS deployment. This study contributes to the literature by modeling project-level financial thresholds and identifying enabling policy conditions for CCS in developing economies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2026.109617first seen 2026-08-26 04:41:26
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。